(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises in the Far East and Arctic as China’s involvement in the region grows and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expands into the Arctic. Moscow is increasingly aligning with Beijing to bolster its position... MORE

Executive Summary: Centralizing reforms to the Ministry of State Security probably constitute the most important development in China’s civilian intelligence system since its establishment in 1983. These reforms instituted “vertical leadership,” under which the MSS is empowered to control local bureaus’ personnel affairs, budgets, and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Tibet-Aid Program (TAP), a principal driver of development in Tibet, has ramped up significantly under Xi Jinping’s rule. The TAP has, throughout its 30-year history, sought to use material development to placate local tensions that have periodically arisen from the Party’s governance... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing has been preparing for a Trump presidency since at least the spring, assessing potential cabinet picks and their views on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Since November 5, the PRC has hyped areas in which the United States might want to... MORE

Executive Summary: Weapons manufactured in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are increasingly falling into the hands of militant groups across Africa, with key contributors being state-owned defense contractors like Norinco. However, it is unclear how the weapons reach these groups. Militant groups such as... MORE

Executive Summary: Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: The Joint Sword-2024B exercise on October 14 focused on quarantining Taiwan’s ports and establishing sea and air superiority. It showcased the ability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to coordinate maritime control with China Coast Guard (CCG) assets. “2024B” was the fourth exercise in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Party sees culture as a tool to achieve its strategic ambitions both inside and outside the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Speeches, articles, and conferences portray it as central to achieving national rejuvenation. Party discourse on culture is shot through with militaristic... MORE

Executive Summary: Researchers in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have optimized Meta’s Llama model for specialized military and security purposes. ChatBIT, an adapted Llama model, appears to be successful in demonstrations in which it was used in military contexts such as intelligence, situational analysis,... MORE

Executive Summary: Huawei has launched HarmonyOS NEXT, the first fully self-developed mobile operating system in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) that is independent of Android and Linux/Unix kernels. HarmonyOS has seen substantial domestic adoption, surpassing iOS to become the PRC’s second-largest operating system with... MORE