Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka approved a bill that would suspend Belarus’s participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), removing numerical ceilings on armed forces and main conventional weapons systems. Numerous voices in the West have suspected that Minsk could... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is actively using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to drum up support for the war in Ukraine and to spread its influence abroad. Moscow has long used the ROC to achieve its goals by establishing spy networks throughout the post-Soviet space... MORE

Executive Summary: Gagauzia, a small Christian Turkic and pro-Russian autonomous region, says it will exercise its right to secede and form an independent state if Moldova becomes a part of Romania. Chisinau’s pursuit of EU membership and its increasing pressure on Gagauzia, Moscow’s desire to... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia and Azerbaijan’s recent discussion of the ownership of four border villages has stoked tensions regarding both countries’ territorial integrity. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has voiced his openness to ceding these villages to Baku and establishing peace in the region. The Armenian... MORE

Executive Summary As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists have responded by exaggerating Western disunity. Kremlin propaganda portrays NATO’s strengthening European pillar as evidence of weakening US leadership. A more concerted focus on Western disunity has become a way for Russia to... MORE

Executive Summary The Mongolian and British governments are engaged in talks on opening an “air bridge” to increase exports of Ulaanbaatar’s rare-earth elements (REEs) to the West. Mongolia possesses vast deposits of REES that play a critical role in the development and production of modern... MORE

Executive Summary: Relations between Tbilisi and Kyiv have reached an all-time low as the two governments remain at odds over Russia’s war against Ukraine and the release of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a Ukrainian citizen, from prison. Georgia’s ruling party has claimed that the... MORE

 Executive Summary: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s tour of the South Caucasus was closely observed by Moscow, whose centuries-old hegemony in the region is at stake. Armenia continues to pursue closer ties with the West, while Azerbaijan maintains a “multi-vector” foreign policy posture to avoid conflict... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik’s recent visits to India and Mongolia highlight Minsk’s growing ambitions to court alternative economic partners to Russia and the West. These efforts reflect a non-ideological basis for Belarus’s foreign policy, as pragmatic economic considerations almost always trump ideological... MORE

Executive Summary: On February 14, an incident occurred to the east of Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, in which an unidentified PRC small boat capsized while allegedly fleeing from an attempted inspection by the Taiwan Coast Guard. The incident resulted in the deaths of two of the... MORE