Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “family-like” meeting to reinforce bilateral ties between the two countries. The visit reflects Minsk’s strategy amid sustained Western sanctions to diversify from over-reliance on Russia without alienating Moscow. Belarus will eventually face... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Vietnam established an official strategic partnership during General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Tô Lâm’s May 7–8 visit to Baku, signing major agreements in energy, defense, science, trade, and culture to expand bilateral cooperation. Key economic deals include energy... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is increasingly turning toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, marking a sharp shift away from its traditional Western allies. Economic ties with these countries have intensified, bringing increased investment, business activity, tourism, and even cultural... MORE

Executive Summary:  Ukraine’s June 1 strike on four Russian airbases exposed severe vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defenses, prompting patriotic outcries and demands for retaliation despite censorship and subdued official responses. Russia’s retaliatory strike on June 6, while labeled as retribution, matched previous attack intensities and... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has released an embryonic Treaty of final settlement with Ukraine following their June 2 bilateral meeting in Istanbul. The territorial clauses require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s de jure annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian mainland provinces to the full extent... MORE

Executive Summary: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned against diplomatic engagement with Georgia’s ruling party without a renewed commitment to democratic norms on May 20, criticizing recent crackdowns on protests, unfair elections, and restrictive laws against non-governmental organizations. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have become vocal... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Parliament condemned the U.S. MEGOBARI Act, labeling it as “hostile” and “factually flawed” after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill calling for sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders due to democratic backsliding. Georgian Dream resumed anti-U.S. rhetoric and disinformation campaigns... MORE

Executive Summary: The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including... MORE