Executive Summary: NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration looks noncommittal and conditions-hedged regarding Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance. Member states believe that Ukraine’s accession would involve the alliance in a war with Russia so long as Moscow wages war against Ukraine. The alliance’s decision to designate... MORE

Executive Summary: In the last two weeks, Azerbaijan’s ties to China and Iran have warmed significantly, with Baku and Beijing declaring a strategic partnership and Baku and Tehran announcing the reopening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Iran.  In the South Caucasus, these accords will affect... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus officially joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the July summit in Astana, becoming the first European country to join. Minsk hopes to use SCO membership to synchronize the development of the north-south and east-west transit corridors, amplify its increasingly vocal anti-sanctions... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington yielded many practical decisions on building Western military capabilities and sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine through bilateral security agreements and increased aid from “frontline” states. Moscow hopes to exploit NATO divisions, but Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states... MORE

Executive Summary: As currently planned, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal will divert water from the Amu Darya river away from Central Asian countries, including those usually referred to as “water surplus” states, as well as China and Russia. Kabul does not participate in any water-sharing accord... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States announced an indefinite postponement of joint military exercises with Georgia that were originally scheduled for the end of July due to Tbilisi’s adoption of the Russian-style “foreign agents” law. Georgia is heavily reliant on Western, specifically US and EU, funding... MORE

Executive Summary: As part of Belarus’s Independence Day festivities, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented an amnesty plan to release thousands of convicts and political prisoners. He also introduced a series of personnel changes that may provide an opening for future rapprochement with the West. Two main... MORE

Executive Summary: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan have agreed to develop a trilateral transit corridor that would connect India to Russia via the eastern branch of the International North-South Transport Corridor. Moscow and New Delhi have enjoyed stronger ties lately, and both governments would support such... MORE

Executive Summary: The failure for Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive was largely due to delays in the West’s funding and fears in some Western countries of escalation if they clearly define and declare their overarching goal as Ukraine’s ultimate victory and Russia’s total defeat. While Russia has... MORE