Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established a framework of authority and values that fosters voluntary compliance from subordinate states, as exemplified by the Solomon Islands’ recent diplomatic alignment with Beijing, abandoning recognition of Taiwan in favor of the PRC. The PRC... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Arctic Express route was launched in July as part of the joint Russian-Chinese development of the “Ice Silk Road,” which aims to develop the shortest route from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic via the Arctic. China increasingly sees strategic benefit in... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku is currently turning away from the West toward Russia and Iran, angry at Western countries for their support of Armenia and criticism of human rights issues in Azerbaijan, and hopeful that Moscow and Tehran will help achieve its geo-economic and geopolitical goals.... MORE

Executive Summary: In August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that Ukrainian attack drones en route to Russia had entered Belarusian airspace, provoking a harsh response from Minsk. Official Minsk’s decision to withdraw troops from the border had demonstrated a willingness to act in ways that... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has established the Maritime Collegium of the Russian Federation, which will focus on the preservation of Russia’s naval power, specifically in the Arctic and along the Northern Sea Route. International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in altering the narrative of Russia’s dominance in the war, sending a shockwave into Russian society,... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 31, the Russian border guards deployed to Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport formally ceased operations. The following day, the airport became the sole responsibility of units from the Armenian Border Guard. This withdrawal only applies to the airport. Russian border guards will... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: After Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in March, Moscow sharply criticized Stockholm and others in the alliance for plans to improve the defenses of Gotland and other islands in the Baltic Sea. This criticism was clearly intended to dissuade them from... MORE