Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: The first sign that Putin would be truly ready for peace negotiations would be discretely initiating contact through intelligence personnel, diplomats, and “useful idiots.” The West should have several signals in mind when considering Putin’s true intentions, as Kremlin messaging could be a... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent developments in Mongolia challenge Moscow’s long-standing assumption that it has sufficient leverage to keep Ulaanbaatar in line with Russian interests. Two of these developments—Russian flight there and interest in Mongolia among Russia’s Buddhist peoples—are probably long-term, disturbing many Russians. The third—Mongolia’s restriction... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The inconsistent explanations of Russian propagandists for Alexei Navalny’s death underscore the Kremlin’s culpability. Silence and a lack of coverage from some prominent propagandists suggest that Moscow fears drawing too much attention to the oppositionist’s death. The Kremlin’s increasing repressions cannot... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny died while serving a 19-year sentence in a high-security prison colony. Foreign leaders have directly blamed the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin for his death. Navalny continually challenged the Kremlin, participated in protests, and attempted to run for office despite... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s rhetoric toward Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, has become increasingly hostile since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.  The rhetoric from Russia includes threats of invasion and annexation, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is investing significantly in militarizing children and youth, allocating substantial funds for patriotic education programs, youth movements, and competitions. Military service is glorified across all levels of education in changes to the national curriculum emphasizing the defense of the homeland and preparing... MORE

Executive Summary: New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification with the CCP... MORE