Executive Summary Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 emboldened Moscow to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fanning the flames of “pan-Russian” nationalism and providing the ideological justification. The cultural, military, and geopolitical significance of Crimea is underpinned by its... MORE

Executive Summary: Analysis of five gray media outlets in Hong Kong during the consultation period for Article 23 legislation passed earlier this year, show how they echo governmental talking points and coordinate to produce collaborative content across popular social media channels. These outlets often present... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia employs various tools to influence people’s minds domestically and internationally, from “positive propaganda” to intricate “information operations.” For a long time, the Kremlin’s primary propaganda narrative has been to instill the notion that truth is subjective or non-existent. The core methods of... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping is unequivocal that US-China AI cooperation is contingent on Western AI technology flowing into the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Broken promises from past US-China technology transfers suggest the PRC will once again use US technology to strengthen censorship and surveillance... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing practices public memory management beyond its borders to neutralize critics by coopting elites and suppressing independent voices. Despite protests, Kyrgyzstan has consistently supported Beijing’s interests, particularly regarding a land transfer and the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Beijing continues to incentivize ruling... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC’s potential to interfere in elections with deepfakes has been noted, with strategies including creating false narratives around candidates and misleading information on electoral processes. Advanced AI tools could further sophisticate these interference efforts, impacting democratic processes worldwide. Beijing appears to have... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC cognitive warfare strategies now include the cultivation of internet influencers who disseminate rumors and on platforms like YouTube designed to undermine Taiwan’s democratic institutions. TikTok has become a significant tool in shaping public opinion, exploiting its algorithmic power to spread narratives favourable... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE

In December 2023, independent journalists and human rights activists prepared a prognosis of what awaits Russia in the near future. According to participants in the “Network Freedoms” project, Russian citizens should expect total censorship on the Internet. The Russian authorities will begin to recognize popular... MORE