Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia.... MORE

Executive Summary Salaheddin Faroughi (alias Abdolrahim Mollahzadeh) is the emir of Jaish-al-Adl (JAA), a militant group seeking autonomy or an independent state for the Baloch people of Iran and Pakistan. JAA was the proximate cause of the most recent series of cross-border fights between the... MORE

Executive Summary Marwan Barghouti is a Palestinian leader serving multiple life sentences in Israeli prison for his role in the second intifada. Hamas has included his name at the top of their list of prisoners to be exchanged for hostages taken in the October 7,... MORE

Executive Summary Ikramul Haque, deputy head of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and head of the group's propaganda wing, was arrested in Bangladesh in May 2023. His story of recruitment and radicalization highlights AQIS’s cross-border coordination and recruitment in India and Bangladesh, particularly through... MORE

Executive Summary Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that participants of the “special military operation” should be viewed as the new elite of Russia and participate in the governing the country to sustain support from those on the front. The Kremlin will be forced to show... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is being forced to postpone and effectively cancel some of its highest-priority transportation projects in the Russian North due to its war against Ukraine. These moves limit Russia’s ability to extract and export natural resources and support the Northern Sea Route, even... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked its first anniversary in Armenia on February 20 with its presence facing several challenges from Baku and Moscow. The European Union and Armenia regard EUMA as a crucial confidence-building measure to increase international support for shifting... MORE