Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has proposed a new constitution to address matters of external security and territorial integrity, which continue to hold up peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. Azerbaijan and Armenia have expressed the necessity of unambiguously recognizing one another’s sovereignty... MORE

Executive Summary: Mass protests in Bashkortostan featured calls for the independence of the Middle Volga republic and have shattered the image that Russia is united behind Putin. These events have convinced Bashkirs and other non-Russians that their time is coming, and Kyiv believes that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s industrial sector has become full dependent on China for machine tools and parts critical to arms manufacturing. Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Western sanctions, and the inability to fully realize import substitution efforts has exacerbated Russia’s dependence on China. That reality signals a... MORE

Executive Summary: Economic decline and growing security threats limit the effectiveness of Kremlin propagandists’ claims of a “bright future” for a “new Russia.” Moscow has been unable to adequately provide for public security, as Ukraine strikes Russian territory with increased frequency and returning veterans of... MORE

Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations unrealistic. The degradation of the Russian economy and growing discontent at home casts doubts on... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian veterans returning from Ukraine have caused violent crime rates to skyrocket even more dramatically than veterans of the Afghan and Chechen wars. The Kremlin’s own policies of recruiting soldiers along ethnic lines and leniently handling veterans who do commit crimes are compounding... MORE

Executive Summary Admiral Hu's expertise in undersea warfare is considered crucial as the PLAN prepares for potential conflicts in East Asia, particularly against the threat posed by the superior US submarine fleet. Hu is recognized as one of the finest submarine officers of his generation,... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russian regional governors have established new headquarters to prevent separatism, nationalism, extremism, and mass riots. The creation of these headquarters raises doubts about the Kremlin’s confidence in public support for the war against Ukraine and Moscow’s imperial policies. Repression against Russian regionalists... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent “almost naked” party of Russian celebrities has led to a new wave of government repression and widespread public discontent. Moscow’s media campaign against the partiers aimed to strengthen support for the war in Ukraine and demonstrate “solidarity with the people” by... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s recent successes at sea have pushed Moscow to consider relocating its vessels to a planned naval base in the Russian-controlled Republic of Abkhazia in Georgia. Ukrainian attacks have effectively pushed the Russian Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, opening the possibility of... MORE