Executive Summary: The contradictions between Russian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric and the realities of everyday life in Russia—including the promises of economic and social stability—have become more evident since his "election" victory.  Putin routinely boasts of significant economic and demographic growth, despite the fact that... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made an official visit to China earlier this month to meet with Chinese President Xi Jin Ping and Foreign Ministry, laying the foundation for future cooperation. Lavrov underscored that Russia’s priority is to strengthen and consolidate relations with... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC aid to Russia is multidomain and underpins much of Moscow’s ability to continue to wage war in Ukraine. Attempts have been made to institutionalize the Sino-Russian relationship, deepening the military aspect in particular. The relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nevertheless... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian mobilization will be necessary to repel a possible Russian offensive in the coming summer, but a draft mobilization law is currently being held up in Ukraine’s parliament. Such uncertainty has a negative impact on Ukrainian society, opening the way to various manipulations... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian government has again introduced a bill on foreign agents that follows the model of similar Russian legislation, specifically targeting nongovernmental organizations and Western donors. The initiative will play a central role in the approaching October parliamentary elections, as Georgian Dream hopes... MORE

Executive Summary: Gagauzia, a small Christian Turkic and pro-Russian autonomous region, says it will exercise its right to secede and form an independent state if Moldova becomes a part of Romania. Chisinau’s pursuit of EU membership and its increasing pressure on Gagauzia, Moscow’s desire to... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death and the specter of increased hopelessness in Russia’s regions have highlighted growing apathy among the Russian opposition. Supporters of “post-Russia” movements are searching for alternatives to Putin’s Kremlin that differ significantly from the long-standing Moscow-centrist model. The next Kremlin crisis... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE

Executive Summary:  South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations... MORE