Executive Summary: Leading candidates in the KMT party chair elections strongly self-identify as Chinese and are advocating to resolve cross-Strait tensions with a dialogue approach rooted in the 1992 Consensus. Notably lacking amongst the leading candidates is someone who represents the “Taiwanese” faction of the... MORE

Executive Summary: For the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the AI era, dissipative warfare could be the theory that replaces attrition with a strategy focused on maintaining internal order and creating disorder in an adversary’s system. The strategy reflects a broader emphasis on intelligentized warfare... MORE

Executive Summary: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increasingly co-opted Taiwanese organized crime groups—most notably the Bamboo Union—for its united front efforts, using them to promote unification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and undermine Taiwan's democratic institutions. Through figures like Chang An-lo and... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing’s relentless pressure on Taiwan now includes oil rigs: twelve permanent or semi-permanent structures and dozens of associated ships. The structures, which are owned by state-owned firm CNOOC, include seven rig structures, three floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, and two semi-submersible... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing is operationalizing its cross-Strait unification strategy through bureaucratic embedding and military-civil fusion, with Fujian Province as the central staging ground. The 17th Straits Forum in June served as a propaganda instrument to showcase apparent Taiwanese grassroots support, while parallel PLA developments contradict... MORE

Executive Summary: The concurrent deployment of the Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers beyond the First Island Chain represents a significant strategic milestone, highlighting the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) improved capability to coordinate complex naval operations and signaling a shift towards more sophisticated Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) operations... MORE

Executive Summary: For the first time, public security authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are targeting Taiwanese military personnel and so-called “Taiwan independence” (台独) forces through a law enforcement framework. Akin to techniques previously used in Hong Kong, the Guangzhou Public Security Bureau... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) is undergoing a complex transformation, seeking to redefine itself by moving away from its perception as a “pro-China” party to one grounded in support for the Republic of China’s (ROC) democratic institutions. Internal factions—ranging from pro-unification traditionalists to sovereignty-leaning localists—reflect... MORE

Executive Summary: In a historic first for any democracy at the national level, mass recall campaigns in Taiwan are seeking to overturn the opposition’s legislative majority that was elected in 2024. The recall campaigns are the latest battleground in an ongoing power struggle between the... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any... MORE