Executive Summary: Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has jettisoned a Tsai Ing-wen era formula designed to keep peace between factions within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and has actively advanced his own New Tide faction. Lai’s more control-oriented approach has given the president increased leverage over... MORE

In the last 6 months, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its aggressive actions targeting Taiwan. These include military provocations, infiltration operations, and gray zone activities. In his 2024 New Year’s Eve address, PRC President Xi Jinping reiterated the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent infiltration cases indicate that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has significantly intensified non-military espionage operations targeting Taiwan’s military, demonstrating strategic diversification beyond traditional military threats. Data reveals a sharp rise in prosecuted espionage cases over 2021–2024, with military personnel (active and retired)... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan is bolstering its deterrence posture through whole-of-society defense resilience drills, involving civilians in readiness activities in part to raise confidence in national defense and drawing on European and Japanese models in the process. The most recent drill included 1,500 participants and tested... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan's 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant improvement over its predecessor in content and clarity but suffers from being a document without consensus: Published by the Ministry of National Defense,... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations against Taiwan on April 1–2 consisted of multiple drills that had limited interconnection, distinguishing them from exercises that tend to be more complex and confrontational. Recent training reforms have meant that drills now tend to involve more cross-service... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic planning and operational doctrine. In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has... MORE

Executive Summary: Creative legal strategies have been deployed in recent years to support a justification for a blockade around Taiwan. International law contains the concept of a “long-distance blockade” and the “continuous voyage doctrine” that could both be invoked to restrict access to Taiwan by... MORE

Executive Summary: Fujian Province’s new “Measures for Guaranteeing Militia Rights and Interests” aim to incentivize maximum readiness for forces who likely will be key in any campaign against Taiwan. The measures provide financial support and other perks in an attempt to motivate troops and promote... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent suspicious activities conducted by the merchant vessels Shunxing-39 and Vasili Shukshin in the vicinity of Taiwan in early 2025 suggest possible collaboration between Chinese and Russian merchant ships related to the reconnaissance and sabotage of undersea communications cables that connect Taiwan to... MORE