Executive Summary: Xi Jinping continues to dominate the Chinese Party-state system, based on an assessment of evidence from spring and summer 2025. Despite high-level purges, unusual military reshuffles, and persistent rumors of elite dissatisfaction, there is no visible indication that Xi’s personal authority has meaningfully... MORE

Executive Summary: Speculation is growing about a power struggle at the top of the Party. An announcement of new regulations for influential decision-making and coordinating bodies is a clear sign of change in how the leadership makes policy. Its implications for Xi Jinping’s power remain... MORE

Executive Summary: The relative absence of supreme leader Xi Jinping in authoritative media could indicate that his power, though still unassailable, is waning. There were no references to Xi or his eponymous ideology in coverage of crucial trade talks with the United States, the announcement... MORE

Executive Summary: A lack of viable challenger suggests that Xi Jinping will remain in power, even if he is more vulnerable today, and his power more curtailed, than in years past. Personnel purges of Xi’s allies across the top echelons of the military since 2023... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently implementing its 14th Five-Year Plan, which expands in part on major successes seen in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Key areas of PLAN improvement in the previous Five-Year Plan include the construction of new vessels and... MORE

Executive Summary: Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong’s absence from an important public event, one attended by all Politburo members except him, suggests that he is either seriously ill or under investigation. The latter possibility would suggest that Xi Jinping may have lost confidence... MORE

Executive Summary: Two waves of recent purges in the People’s Liberation Army have focused on Xi Jinping’s two major bases of support, the Shaanxi Gang and the Fujian Clique, likely eroding his power over the military. A series of articles in the PLA Daily in... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; princelings, especially those based overseas; military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces mounting challenges to his legitimacy from multiple directions, with economic troubles, mass killings, and corruption in the military eroding his grip on power. A spate of unrelated violent incidents and rising social protests across the People’s Republic of China (PRC)... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s address on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) highlighted risks and challenges ahead and included a lengthy segment on unification with Taiwan. The speech was accompanied by relatively muted celebrations on October 1, which... MORE