Executive Summary: A lack of viable challenger suggests that Xi Jinping will remain in power, even if he is more vulnerable today, and his power more curtailed, than in years past. Personnel purges of Xi’s allies across the top echelons of the military since 2023... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently implementing its 14th Five-Year Plan, which expands in part on major successes seen in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Key areas of PLAN improvement in the previous Five-Year Plan include the construction of new vessels and... MORE

Executive Summary: Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong’s absence from an important public event, one attended by all Politburo members except him, suggests that he is either seriously ill or under investigation. The latter possibility would suggest that Xi Jinping may have lost confidence... MORE

Executive Summary: Two waves of recent purges in the People’s Liberation Army have focused on Xi Jinping’s two major bases of support, the Shaanxi Gang and the Fujian Clique, likely eroding his power over the military. A series of articles in the PLA Daily in... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; princelings, especially those based overseas; military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces mounting challenges to his legitimacy from multiple directions, with economic troubles, mass killings, and corruption in the military eroding his grip on power. A spate of unrelated violent incidents and rising social protests across the People’s Republic of China (PRC)... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s address on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) highlighted risks and challenges ahead and included a lengthy segment on unification with Taiwan. The speech was accompanied by relatively muted celebrations on October 1, which... MORE

Executive Summary: Across 12 communiques, meeting readouts, and official phone calls between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin since February 2022, the salience of language on Ukraine has reduced, but the substance has hardened. The latest communique includes a statement that “the root causes must be... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent behavior by General Secretary Xi Jinping suggests a contradiction in his approach to leadership. While he has sacked protégés, suggesting a reckoning with past personnel decisions, he continues to prioritize personal connections and loyalty over competence. This centralization of power is exemplified... MORE