Executive Summary: Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions. These moves are negatively impacting the Russian economy and forcing Moscow to seek... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russian territory. Russia’s strike against Ukraine, coinciding... MORE

Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through sanctions, electricity shortages, gas imbalance, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that a new president will be elected in early January. This will be the first time the Georgian president is elected by an electoral college, half of which is made up of parliament. This change is significant... MORE

Executive Summary: Over the past several months, Russian propaganda and reputable analytical platforms close to the Kremlin have increasingly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia’s war in Ukraine has inflicted unprecedented losses on Russian forces, with significant casualties disproportionately affecting regions with large Cossack populations. The Russian government, however, romanticizes Cossack history across society to increase militarization in Russian society. The war has been infused with religious... MORE

Executive summary: Ukraine is alleged to be providing military equipment and training to the Tuareg separatist coalition CSP-DPA in its armed struggle against Russian-backed Malian government forces. This support is framed as a strategic move by Ukraine to counter Russian influence in Africa, particularly targeting... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is facing ever greater problems filling the ranks of its invasion force. Increasing signing bonuses and pardons for those who serve are less effective than advertised. The Kremlin is turning to ever more repressive and deceptive measures, but these are not working... MORE

Executive Summary: In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War. The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Ministries of Defense of Belarus and Russia approved the Zapad-2025 Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE), scheduled for 2025, which will focus on both conventional and nuclear components. Preparations for the Zapad-2025 JSE are designed to create a cover for the concentration... MORE