Executive Summary: On April 24 and 25, the seventh convocation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (OBPA), the primary organ of state power in Belarus, assembled in Minsk. Lukashenka views the OBPA as a preemptive measure against the rise of a Gorbachev-like post-Lukashenka era and as... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian businesses have experienced serious losses since the beginning of the war in Ukraine due to Western sanctions, but many continue to trust the Kremlin. Some companies viewed the sanctions and the isolation of Russia as an opportunity for growth in the domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream party organized a march in favor of their foreign agents bill as a response to two weeks of continuous protests against the bill. Western leaders expressed concern for the foreign agents bill, threatening to impose sanctions against Georgia’s ruling... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia passed legislation creating a Cossack “mobilization reserve,” a reflection of Moscow’s broader efforts to use the state-registered Cossack movement as a recruitment tool for the war in Ukraine. The Cossacks loyal to the Kremlin are playing an increasingly active role in Russia’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia announced in early April that nearly all domestic financial transactions are now being conducted through the Financial Transaction System, which was created as an alternative to SWIFT. The development of new financial systems is part of a broader desire for greater independence... MORE

Executive Summary: The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a political signal to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost member states and a practical preparation for nuclear escalation. Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory suggests that the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces. Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev says the influx of immigrants threatens Russia’s social and political stability and, if allowed to continue, could call the country’s territorial integrity into question. Patrushev’s words are stoking xenophobic attitudes in Russia, powering a push for tighter... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE