Executive Summary: Western punitive sanctions against Belarus since 2020 may have done more to strengthen authoritarianism in Belarus and reinforce the country’s economic, political, informational, and military cooperation with Russia. Sanctions have negatively impacted the lives of ordinary citizens, making it harder to obtain visas,... MORE

Executive Summary: In recent weeks, Russia has suffered significant personnel losses on the Ukrainian front and in Africa, which may influence the number of those willing to sign a military contract with the Ministry of Defense. Despite official declarations about the increasing number of contract... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran. The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening... MORE

Executive Summary: A new, more radical, and more deadly threat to Russian control in the North Caucasus is emerging. The new movement is based on Islamist ideas rather than concerns about ethnic hierarchies or anger about corruption and situated primarily in Dagestan rather than Chechnya.... MORE

Executive Summary: Twenty-three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)member states have undertaken bilateral security commitments to Ukraine. The ten-year agreements operate under the umbrella of a Ukraine Compact, outside NATO’s framework, and postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership in deference to Russia. The assistance offers are potentially massive... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has... MORE

Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE

Executive Summary: The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness to accept Kyiv’s most basic terms. More likely, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the exchanges... MORE

Executive Summary: Rostec, Russia’s state-owned military-industrial corporation, revised its financial data for 2023, initially presented in May, and handed over this new data to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 30. The update shows a decrease in total revenue, arms manufacturing revenue, civil products revenue,... MORE