Executive Summary: Ukrainian forces have enjoyed a string of successes in targeting energy facilities and military installations within Russia and the occupied territories. Kyiv’s “de-naftification” of Russia reflects Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Moscow, further enflaming societal discontent with Putin’s Kremlin.... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow plans to build a network of drone bases along the entire Northern Sea Route to monitor threats and support expansive Russian claims to the Arctic. The Kremlin initiated the project based on what it has learned about drones during its war against... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan is increasing the pressure on Armenia to return eight border settlements— four villages and four exclaves—under Baku’s sovereignty. Azerbaijani officials and the expert community have repeatedly demanded the return of the four border villages, voicing optimism that the issue can be solved... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus tightened its mobilization legislation in April, suggesting that it might be taking steps to prepare for direct combat. The Belarusian military is simultaneously increasing its use of military equipment under the guise of exercises, purchasing more drones, and staffing brigades to wartime... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made an official visit to China earlier this month to meet with Chinese President Xi Jin Ping and Foreign Ministry, laying the foundation for future cooperation. Lavrov underscored that Russia’s priority is to strengthen and consolidate relations with... MORE

Executive Summary: The Central Asian states are becoming more concerned with the surge in drugs being trafficked from Afghanistan since the Taliban retook power in 2021. The Taliban has banned poppy cultivation, but drug enforcement agencies in Central Asia claim that drug production continues in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is struggling to attract more volunteers to fight in Ukraine, and Moscow has increasingly turned to the outer regions for recruitment. Such an approach has raised ethnic tensions in some regions where the volunteers are largely non-ethnic Russians, while other regions have... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian women who oppose Putin’s war and want their men to come home have adopted a new tactic, wordlessly banging pots outside their homes to protest the war. The movement has been gaining momentum, and the Kremlin has responded by increasing repression and... MORE

Executive Summary Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow now likely considers US commercial space assets as part of Washington’s military infrastructure following the Department of Defense’s issuance of the 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy. Russia’s military capabilities in space are highly asymmetric compared to US methods, and the Russian military... MORE