Executive Summary: Cracks in the Kremlin’s infrastructure are appearing following the Russian Presidential Election last week, exposing fragilities in the seemingly solid system of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power. The deadlock in the high-intensity battles in Ukraine has led to worrisome developments in many aspects... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creations of a new army corps, motor rifle division, and Dnipro River flotilla, along with the establishment of 30 large unspecified units. Moscow’s manpower resources and the size of the officer corps remain limited, and these... MORE

Executive Summary:  South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova. The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding to maintain influence over Moldovan politics. Encouraging Gagauzia to demand upgrades in its autonomy is... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian private military company (PMC) Española grew out of a subculture of soccer hooliganism in Russia. Española’s connection to soccer has important implications for using sports to recruit private soldiers for Russia’s war against Ukraine—a trend that has shown signs of spreading... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Fears that Russia will interfere in Georgia’s October 2024 parliamentary election are increasing following the appointment of a new pro-Kremlin special representative of the Georgian prime minister who oversees relations with Russia. In recent years, the ruling elite of Georgia have been using informal... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has been developing its space industry in the past couple of years to boost its international reputation and elevate the country as a regional hub for science and technology. Expansion of the Azerbaijani space industry has led to partnerships with Israel, Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia’s recent presidential “elections” are likely to mark a turning point in President Vladimir Putin’s behavior at home, abroad, and toward those Russians who oppose him. While optimists may hope he will use his unchallenged power to make peace and reduce repression, many... MORE