Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that participants of the “special military operation” should be viewed as the new elite of Russia and participate in the governing the country to sustain support from those on the front. The Kremlin will be forced to show... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: Polish farmers object to the EU Green Deal and the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products into Europe, which they assert will harm the domestic agricultural market. The protests are exacerbating already turbulent Ukrainian-Polish relations, a development that Russian propaganda could attempt to exploit... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is being forced to postpone and effectively cancel some of its highest-priority transportation projects in the Russian North due to its war against Ukraine. These moves limit Russia’s ability to extract and export natural resources and support the Northern Sea Route, even... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked its first anniversary in Armenia on February 20 with its presence facing several challenges from Baku and Moscow. The European Union and Armenia regard EUMA as a crucial confidence-building measure to increase international support for shifting... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia will hold presidential elections this week in an attempt to demonstrate the population’s sustained loyalty to President Vladimir Putin and support for his war.       On the battlefield, Moscow’s primary tactic of mobilizing massive amounts of weapons and manpower is... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has disabled roughly one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, relying on “sea drones” and other unmanned capabilities. Kyiv’s offensive measures in the Black Sea have allowed it to deliver larger volumes of grain to... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan are facing severe water shortages, which Kabul plans to counter with the Qosh Tepa canal, which will likely exacerbate water issues in Central Asia. Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan’s economies largely rely on agriculture, and the canal project would detrimentally affect... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has transformed the education system in the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, replacing educators and curriculum with pro-Russian, military-patriotic education aimed at militarizing Ukrainian children against their homeland. The Kremlin has started to erase the Ukrainian language, rewrite history books,... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow recently carried out a counterterrorism operation against what it describes as Islamist radicals in Ingushetia—the smallest, poorest, and arguably most restive republic not only in the North Caucasus but also in the Russian Federation. The Kremlin took this step lest violence in... MORE