Executive Summary: Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest growth in 2023. The manufacturing output index’s increase does not reflect a proportional rise in actual production. The physical output of essential goods for arms manufacturing has revealed minimal growth over the past seven years. While some... MORE

Executive Summary: The Biden administration's temporary pause on constructing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has prompted Russian optimism about boosting its global LNG exports and exploiting internal divisions in the United States. Some Russian experts foresee opportunities in the potential for decreased US... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow views Zelenskyy’s decree to devote more attention to ethnic Ukrainians inside Russia as a more serious attack on Russian statehood and identity than many in Ukraine and the West do. That perception will likely prompt Moscow to diminish the history of Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: The Hungarian National Assembly passed a controversial law establishing the “Sovereignty Protection Authority” (SZVH) to combat alleged foreign interference in the country’s political processes. The Sovereignty Protection Law itself bears similarities to Russian law in targeting alleged foreign agents, limiting opposition parties’ ability... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has returned to proposals for extensive constitutional reforms, citing the need for a new constitution to enhance Armenia’s competitiveness amid changing geopolitical conditions. Armenian officials have asserted that the primary focus of constitutional reforms is to restore the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent tour of North Africa focused on maintaining economic ties while seeking to expand the Kremlin’s political influence in the region. The Kremlin has been successful in expanding trade ties with Morocco and Tunisia by exploiting both countries’... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is updating its National Security Concept and military doctrine amid increasing tensions in Eastern Europe brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine Drafts of both documents emphasize that Minsk’s best course to preserving national security emerges from better relations with Europe, despite... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 26, Armenia and Georgia signed a joint agreement establishing a strategic partnership between the two countries. Armenia seeks to reduce its dependency on Russia with the new declaration and become more active in regional transit activities, while Georgia may hope to... MORE

Executive Summary: Both Bashkir and Kazakh nationalists are pressing for greater control over or outright annexation of Russia’s Orenburg Oblast. Russian commentators are calling on Moscow to increase pressure on Astana and expand the Russian military presence in Orenburg to prevent such actions. Opening the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian sabotage of Russian railways has severely disrupted Moscow’s military logistics in supplying the frontlines. Russian authorities arrested 137 individuals suspected of railway sabotage between February 2022 and October 2023, charging some with acts of treason and terrorism. Some of the sabotage has... MORE