Territorial Disputes no Longer Threaten Peace and Stability in Central Asia

Executive Summary:

• The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan resolved the last major border conflict in Central Asia through the Agreement on the Junction Point of the State Borders of the Three Countries signed in Khujand, Tajikistan, on March 31.
• The resolution of border issues in the Fergana Valley ends decades of conflict rooted in Soviet-era delimitation that disregarded local ethnic and geographic factors.
• This agreement enhances regional stability, opens doors to increased international investment, and boosts cooperation on major infrastructure projects in the region, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the CASA-1000 electricity initiative.

On March 31, three Central Asian states entered a new era of regional cooperation by resolving their last remaining territorial dispute. The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in the Tajik city of Khujand and signed the Agreement on the Junction Point of the State Borders of the Three Countries (President of Tajikistan, March 31). This was complemented by the Khujand Declaration of Eternal Friendship and the opening of a stele symbolizing friendship at the junction point of the three states’ borders (Asia-plus, April 1). This junction point lies at the intersection of Kyrgyzstan’s Batken Province, Uzbekistan’s Fergana Province, and Tajikistan’s Sughd Province, which are all part of the Fergana Valley, the most densely populated and violence-prone area of the region with scarce resources. 

For decades, the Fergana Valley was forecasted to burst into an interstate conflict, largely due to long-standing territorial disputes that brought constant tension into the relations of Central Asian countries (see EDM, October 3, 2012, August 1, 2014, May 19, 2021, December 12, 2022). These gloomy projections can now be put to rest with the extinguishing of a potential interstate border conflict. The impact of this agreement will be felt beyond border communities and positively affect political, economic, and social development in the region. 

Central Asia’s territorial disputes stem from the Soviet Union’s border delimitation practices (see EDM, March 12). The Soviet authorities undertook delimitation efforts in the region with the premise of living in one supra-state and without considering the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union. The delimitation process was carried out with little consideration of the geographic and ethnic peculiarities, especially in the Fergana Valley. In this part of Central Asia, nomadic and sedentary populations of Uzbek, Tajik, and Kyrgyz peoples lived in close settlements and shared water and land resources. 

The effect of these arbitrary delimitation processes was felt immediately, with Central Asian states arguing against them and disputing territories even during the Soviet era. For example, there were three border conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1974, 1982, and 1989 over the shared use of land and water resources by the communities near Tajikistan’s Vorukh enclave within Kyrgyzstan (Radio Azattyk, October 4, 2022). These conflicts were pushed under the rug by the central Soviet authorities, whose measures often provided short-term solutions and favored one side. After the Central Asian states gained independence in 1991, territorial disputes grew (see EDM, May 28, 2013, February 11, 2014, January 28, 2020, March 18, May 26, 2021, November 3, 2022). This was particularly apparent in the Ferghana Valley, where the border delimitation process took over 30 years and hundreds of casualties to complete. 

In contrast, the border delimitation process outside the Ferghana Valley was peaceful and took significantly less time. Turkmenistan finalized its borders with its two Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, in 2001 (Asia-plus, November 10, 2017). Kazakhstan also completed border delimitation processes with its three regional neighbors in 2001 (Kazinform, November 23, 2016). While there was some progress in the Fergana Valley as well, most of it was reached through the delimitation of mountainous regions where nobody lived to contest them. 

Delimitating borders in densely populated areas remained problematic, especially in the enclaves. The Fergana Valley is home to multiple enclaves, the three largest being Tajikistan’s Vorukh and Uzbekistan’s Shahimardon and Sokh, all located within the territory of Kyrgyzstan (24.kg, June 5, 2007). Scarce water and land resources, coupled with densely populated, close, and disputed settlements, resulted in frequent border conflicts in the region, which sometimes grew into inter-state confrontations. An example of this was the 2016 incident at the disputed Ungar-Too area of the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border when seven employees of Uzbekistan’s Interior Ministry landed in Kyrgyzstan from a helicopter following a dispute over the Orto-Tokoy reservoir (Kaktus Media, August 22, 2016). More devastating examples were the 2021 and 2022 military conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (see EDM, September 23, 2022).   

The first step toward ending territorial disputes in the Fergana Valley was made in 2019 when Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reached the border delimitation agreement (Radio Ozodi, May 6, 2024). The second step was made with the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border deal, which was signed in January 2023 (24.kg, January 27, 2023). The third and last step was made in February, when Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a historic border agreement (see EDM, March 12). The meeting of the three presidents in Khujand was a joint celebration of their diplomatic achievements. 

The momentous scale of the agreement signed in Khujand was reflected not just in the grandiose statements of the three presidents but also in foreign responses to this development. On the long list of international actors who congratulated Central Asia on finally agreeing on borders are the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Kuwait, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, among others (Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs, April 2). In his address, PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesman Guo Jiakun congratulated Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan “on the final resolution of the territorial issue” and promised to “jointly promote the high-quality development of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, with these and other Central Asian countries, deepening cooperation in various fields” (24.kg, April 6). 

This development has significant future advantages for the PRC and other international partners of Central Asia as it reduces the risks for their investments. Through resolving their territorial disputes, Central Asian states have shown that they are committed to resolving any resentment and political demands toward each other and thus can be seen as trusted partners with synergy between them. This signal is a boost for major transnational energy and transport projects such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the CASA-1000 electricity project involving Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the rapidly growing Middle Corridor connecting Europe and Asia (see EDM, October 7, 2013, July 17, October 28, 2024, April 8). 

This ending of border disputes in Central Asia comes at a time when the region is gaining more international attention and ramping up its engagement with the outside world. Current and future investors in Central Asia can now be assured that their projects will not have to deal with the prospects of inter-state conflict and instability that cause rifts between political elites in the region.