Executive Summary: In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization. Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,”... MORE

Executive Summary: Water shortages in Central Asia are becoming a problem for Russia as the drought and its effects spread into Russian territories, and Central Asians call for Moscow to send water from Siberian rivers or face massive immigration. Russians overwhelmingly oppose the revival of... MORE

Executive Summary: Italy’s increased bilateral engagement with the Georgian Dream government sharply contrasts with broader EU skepticism toward Tbilisi’s democratic backsliding. Rome’s approach is shaped by historical, cordial ties with Russia and its proxies; energy interests; and a sovereigntist outlook that downplays regime type in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Cossack Society (VsKO) drafted an agreement in June that would formally establish a Cossack mobilization reserve. Cossack forces are already active in Russia’s Combat Army Reserve (BARS) system, with about 25,000 Cossacks in 18 battalions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: As Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to reimpose totalitarianism on Russia, the Federal Security Service (FSB) increasingly mirrors its Soviet predecessors, including rebuilding a network of camps some are calling “Gulag 2.0,” among other ways. The quiet revival of these other functions... MORE