Attacks Demonstrate IS-CAP Evolution in Mozambique Brian M. Perkins Northern Mozambique has witnessed a significant escalation of operations by Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) in recent weeks, with the group claiming two substantial attacks over a span of just three days. The attacks, which... MORE

Introduction The first months of 2020 witnessed significant diplomatic activity between the Gulf and the Maghreb. However, the emerging global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely affect some of these diplomatic dynamics. In January 2020, the Berlin conference on Libya offered an... MORE

In January, Muhammed Shaeban, ‘al-Mirdas,’ resigned as the Libyan deputy ambassador and consul general in Tunis. Allegedly, he was about to be fired and decided to step down on his own. Mirdas was not only a diplomat. Primarily, he was one of the leaders of... MORE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since its announcement in 2015, Russia’s proposed Nord Stream Two natural gas pipeline has remained the infrastructure project posing the largest single threat to the energy and national security of the European Union and Ukraine. The year 2019 witnessed the culmination of years... MORE

The Russian Southern District Military Court, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, recently sentenced Biysoltan Jamalov, a resident of Dagestan, to 12 years in prison on charges of terrorism and participation in the activities of an “illegal” armed group in Syria. Several years ago, the Russian... MORE

The Shifting Power of al-Qaeda’s Affiliates Brian M. Perkins Several significant developments with broad implications for al-Qaeda and its global affiliates have taken place since early 2019. Leadership losses and changing conflict dynamics have led to a notable reshuffling in terms of the strength and... MORE

Introduction Following the 1991 dissolution of the USSR—which maintained diplomatic relations with 46 African countries in the mid-1980s­—the Russian Federation lost a large part of the Soviet influence on the continent. Beginning in the mid-2000s, however, Russia`s regional policy started to change, and the outbreak... MORE

Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), like other jihadist groups, is prone to internal leadership purges. After pledging loyalty to Abubakar al-Baghdadi and joining Islamic State (IS) in March 2015, ISWAP’s hardline leader, Abubakar Shekau, was ejected from the group in August 2016. IS... MORE

Sudan’s April 2019 popular revolution—aided by the military—ended three decades of rule by dictator Omar al-Bashir. The removal of Bashir was celebrated, and the country was hopeful for a new era. Despite Bashir’s ouster, the next steps would prove difficult as the new transitional government... MORE

The ongoing conflict in northern Mozambique has gathered pace over the past several months and shows little sign of abating, despite the Mozambican military and Russian private military contractor (PMC) Wagner’s security operations in the region. Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) has claimed responsibility... MORE