Executive Summary: Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities. Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have... MORE

Executive Summary: Kyiv is moving toward more openly backing non-Russian national movements within Russia. It is convinced that such efforts will help it defeat Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and that the decolonization of Russia will ensure Ukraine’s future security. Such moves, which have their origins... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s muted response to the October 10 announcement of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize win and the ceasefire in Gaza underline how Russia’s war against Ukraine has come to dominate the Kremlin’s attention. Recent independent polling by the Levada... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: The missions of 25 member states of the European Union, along with the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement on September 24, strongly condemning the Georgian government’s “baseless and damaging” statements criticizing their diplomatic missions in Georgia. The vast majority of European states... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Executive Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on August 19, met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk following a string of previous high-level visits that expanded bilateral relations in commercial and military spheres. Tensions with the West have pushed Belarus and Iran to seek alignment... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 24 Ukrainian naval drone attack on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse marked the first time that Ukraine has used maritime drones to attack Russian oil industry facilities.   Ukraine’s development of advanced maritime drones like the Magura and SeaBaby have demonstrated... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s youth organizations have played an important role in the Kremlin’s indoctrination effort, with Russian President Putin himself facilitating their development. Groups such as Yunarmia, Avangard camps, and the “Movement of the First” serve as platforms for indoctrination and militarization of their members,... MORE

Executive Summary: The first phone call between U.S. President Trump and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in August, followed by high-level meetings in Minsk, marked a surprising shift after 15 years of estrangement between the two countries.  The issue of political prisoners has become the central... MORE