Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise... MORE

Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in November to the busy border crossing between Russia... MORE

On November 3, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka paid a visit to Astravets, the site of Belarus’s nuclear power plant located 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) from the Lithuanian border (President.gov.by, November 3). The visit was arranged in concert with Russian energy corporation Rosatom completing the... MORE

A new electoral season has kicked off in Belarus as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in February 2024. The elections are coming at a time when two parallel worlds in Belarus are increasingly diverging, writes Alexander Klaskovsky, a veteran political commentator now in exile... MORE

Belarus-watchers, including policymakers, can do more to understand several important facts about Belarus as a national community. First, Belarusian nation-building is still a work in progress. Second, the Belarusian national movement was a latecomer compared with those of the Russians and Poles and was less... MORE

Western policy toward Belarus depends on policymakers’ willingness to scrutinize the facts on the ground. In this regard, two narratives undergirding the West’s approach are at war with one another. Some argue that Belarus has become inseparable from Russia and that there is no need... MORE