Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintain that the “special military operation” continues as planned, that Moscow is open to peace talks, and that “freezing” hostilities would be the best solution for both sides. Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasize the need for more investments in supporting Ukraine and securing... MORE

Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in November to the busy border crossing between Russia... MORE

On October 15, after eight years in power, the Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland lost its absolute parliamentary majority. While PiS technically won a plurality of the vote, it was unable to form a coalition government. On December 11, the Sejm (lower house... MORE

Russia forced what it calls “the collective West” into significant concessions for this year’s Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) annual meeting of foreign ministers. Using its statutory veto and blocking powers, Moscow forced the organization to replace Estonia with Malta to chair... MORE

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is holding its annual meeting at the level of foreign ministers from November 30 to December 1 in North Macedonia, the organization’s chair for 2023. Several Western governments—including those in Washington, Berlin, and Paris—are coming to the... MORE

On November 15, an important event took place in Latvia involving Russian émigrés. A conference was held for the “Free Ingria” movement, where participants met to collaborate on a plan to separate St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast, or Ingria, from the Vladimir Putin regime... MORE

On November 3, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka paid a visit to Astravets, the site of Belarus’s nuclear power plant located 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) from the Lithuanian border (President.gov.by, November 3). The visit was arranged in concert with Russian energy corporation Rosatom completing the... MORE