Executive Summary: While many Belarusians have left the country since 2020 and the initiation of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the migration of Western fugitives to Belarus has attracted more attention due to their questionable motives and access to government secrets. These fugitives give Minsk the opportunity... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s hybrid strategy against Ukraine continues to focus heavily on crippling civilian infrastructure to undermine the Ukrainian economy. Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage system, with the aim of weakening the European Union since it has increasingly relied on Ukraine’s storage... MORE

Executive Summary: At the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly in April, Belarusian officials confirmed that Russian tactical nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus. The new military doctrine of Belarus declares the role of Russian TNWs as an essential component of preventive deterrence against unfriendly states. The... MORE

Executive Summary: The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) has become the central body in overseeing any political transition in Belarus. The assembly has been vested with powers that give it supreme authority over the president’s removal from office, though Lukashenka was elected as the ABPA’s chair.... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia for its export infrastructure, especially as its Ukrainian options have been closed since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion. Minsk is seeking alternatives to Russian railways by using the still incomplete International North-South Transport Corridor and discussing plans... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 24 and 25, the seventh convocation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (OBPA), the primary organ of state power in Belarus, assembled in Minsk. Lukashenka views the OBPA as a preemptive measure against the rise of a Gorbachev-like post-Lukashenka era and as... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia passed legislation creating a Cossack “mobilization reserve,” a reflection of Moscow’s broader efforts to use the state-registered Cossack movement as a recruitment tool for the war in Ukraine. The Cossacks loyal to the Kremlin are playing an increasingly active role in Russia’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a political signal to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost member states and a practical preparation for nuclear escalation. Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory suggests that the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces. Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE