All parties to the Minsk Two agreement, which has resulted in a shaky ceasefire in southeastern Ukraine since February 12, express varying levels of concern about a possible full resumption of hostilities. On April 10, the pro-Russian Ukrainian rebel leader who heads the Donetsk “People’s... MORE

Russia demands a “special status” for certain territories in Ukraine and Moldova as a device to promote territorial secession processes. Moscow encourages local Russophile groups to claim a “special territorial status” or orchestrates such demands on their behalf, instigating state fragmentation. The first case study... MORE

Although, for now, the ceasefire agreements reached in February 2015 appear to be mostly holding in eastern Ukraine, nationwide feelings of anxiety and stress persist. This is not only due to the fear that Vladimir Putin may restart the war in May, but also due... MORE

President Petro Poroshenko recently instructed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to “nip any separatist organizations in the bud […] so that Ukraine should not again have to pay a heavy price later on,” as is now the case in Donetsk-Luhansk (Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, March 25).... MORE

Quantitative indicators show a dramatic reorientation of Ukraine’s natural gas supply strategy. Dependence on Gazprom has become a thing of the past. Kyiv demonstrates political resolve to pursue supply diversification and adapt to changing market conditions with the European Commission’s backing. Along with supply diversification,... MORE

On March 31, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka gave a two-hour interview to Ryan Chilcote, a Russian-speaking London-based reporter for Bloomberg Television (YouTube, April 2). Most, if not all, media commentaries initially singled out Lukashenka’s particular suggestion that the United States ought to join the negotiations... MORE

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014, senior Russian political-military leaders have, on numerous occasions, referred to military reinforcement and consolidation when speaking about integrating the peninsula into the Russian Federation. This has resulted, consequently, in often contradictory statements from the defense ministry... MORE

For Part One Click Here  On April 2, Russian Gazprom and Naftohaz Ukrainy signed an agreement on natural gas sales-and-purchases to cover the next three months. Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized his government, which in turn instructed Gazprom, to sign this agreement, with a substantial... MORE

While Beijing officially supports Russia’s position on its annexation of Crimea, behind the scenes China is helping keep the battered Ukrainian economy afloat. On March 26, the Ukrainian government and China’s CITIC Construction (a subsidiary of CITIC Ltd.) signed a memorandum of understanding stipulating that... MORE

On April 1, on President Vladimir Putin’s instructions (Kremlin.ru, March 31; Interfax, April 1), Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev prolonged the validity of the existing agreement on Russian natural gas supplies to Ukraine until June 30, effective immediately. Originally signed by Russian Gazprom and Naftohaz Ukrainy... MORE