Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 11 in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin called on the Ukrainian side to observe the ceasefire, but noted that the Russian army would retaliate in case of violation. Ukrainian officials report... MORE

Executive Summary: Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While... MORE

Executive Summary: The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in this theater. A maritime ceasefire without demarcation lines and... MORE

Executive Summary: This year, Ukraine has taken the initiative at sea and focused more strikes on Crimea and Russian positions in the Black Sea. With new tactics and weaponry, these attacks have become more difficult for the Russian military to counter. The end of 2023... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy has demonstrated its ability to counter the world’s supposed third-best military through innovative weaponry and unmanned naval drones. The use of unmanned systems, particularly drones, has emerged as a critical element in modern naval warfare, with both... MORE

Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington yielded many practical decisions on building Western military capabilities and sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine through bilateral security agreements and increased aid from “frontline” states. Moscow hopes to exploit NATO divisions, but Russian... MORE

Executive Summary Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 emboldened Moscow to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fanning the flames of “pan-Russian” nationalism and providing the ideological justification. The cultural, military, and geopolitical significance of Crimea is underpinned by its... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s term technically expired in May, but the constitution and other laws allow him to continue until elections can be held, leading the Kremlin to speculate about Zelenskyy’s status and Ukraine’s presidency. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to impose his... MORE

Executive Summary: The ban on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia significantly disrupts the country’s defense capabilities. Preemptive strikes on Russian assembly areas and air bases would be easier and more cost-effective than countering troops and bombers along the contact line.... MORE