With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I... MORE

Western diplomacy seems about to revert to pressuring Ukraine into a disadvantageous armistice and negotiations with Russia’s protégés in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” This could become the basis for creating a Transnistria-type Russian protectorate, frozen in place and time on Ukraine’s territory (see... MORE

Executive Summary The Russia-supported separatists operating in eastern Ukraine as well as some of their backers in Russia are increasingly espousing a radical ideology based on a meld of Christian Orthodoxy, expansionist Eurasianism, and irredentist state aggression. One important figure closely tied into this group... MORE

On July 28, Ukraine’s Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yuriy Prodan remarked that Russia’s March 18 unilateral annexation of Crimea has caused massive energy asset losses to Ukraine (uapress.info, July 28). Prodan said, “Taking into account all the energy facilities in Crimea, we are talking... MORE

Intercepts of Moscow-Donetsk telephone conversations, made public by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), reveal pessimism and demoralization on the part of at least some of the secessionist “republic’s” leadership. On July 28, the SBU released audio recordings with transcripts of two telephone conversations, both initiated from... MORE

This week, the United States and the European Union imposed long-awaited and feared punitive economic sanctions aimed at sectors of the Russian economy and designed to change President Vladimir Putin’s policies on Ukraine. But in Moscow, they are seen as lopsided and largely ineffective. The... MORE

Read Part One here.      On the ground in Ukraine’s east, the most significant Russia-backed separatist field commanders continue operating autonomously from Igor Girkin/Strelkov—the self-proclaimed military leader of the pro-Russia rebel forces and “defense minister” of the “Donetsk People’s Republic [“DPR”].” They basically “coordinate,” taking... MORE

On July 28, Russian state television presented Vladimir Antyufeyev as “acting chairman of the council of ministers of the Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR prime minister],” and featured an interview with Antyufeyev from Donetsk (Rossiya 1 TV, July 28). Earlier on that day, Antyufeyev himself told... MORE

The majority coalition in Ukraine’s unicameral parliament has formally dissolved. This should make it possible for President Petro Poroshenko, who was himself elected (on May 25) in early elections, to call early parliamentary elections. His party may win, according to opinion polls, while the party... MORE

If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with 298 people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have disillusioned him—assuming his subordinates actually informed him about it. The White House statement directly noted:... MORE