Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow has declared two movements in the ethnic Ukrainian regions of the Russian Federation as “extremist,” one in the Kuban and another in the Far East. The move reflects growing Russian concern about Ukrainian activism within Russia and outside support for it. These... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military in Ukraine is suffering from various signs of degradation. The longer the war goes on, the more these trends are likely to intensify, threatening Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations and maintain order at home. The battlefield degradation is seeping... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian State Duma Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky, former ataman of the Don Cossacks, gave an interview on May 14 discussing plans to open new state-registered Cossack societies in the occupied territories of Ukraine, highlighting the Cossacks’ role in the Kremlin’s consolidation of control over... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2024 offensive has made some small gains while enduring heavy manpower and equipment losses. This approach reflects the Kremlin’s shift from carrying out a “special military operation” in Ukraine to digging in for a “long war” of attrition. Ukrainian defenses have been... MORE

Executive Summary Armenia plans to replace its aging Soviet-era Metsamor nuclear reactor by 2036 and is currently engaged in talks with other countries, including Russia and the United States, to replace it. Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan announced that talks with the United States... MORE

Executive Summary: As new peace proposals are published, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear to be any closer to accepting negotiations with Ukraine to conduct a ceasefire or end the war. The European Union, except for Hungary, is showing stronger support for Ukraine, aiming... MORE

Executive Summary: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit did not unveil any particular strategy—let alone a winning one—to deal with Russia’s war against Ukraine, postponing any draft strategy until next year and stopping short of recognizing that Ukraine is the immediate arena of a... MORE