Executive Summary Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners. Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has developed a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), Oreshnik, based on its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In November 2024, Russian armed forces conducted a combined missile strike on a Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility as a test for the missile. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka was named the winner of Belarus’s seventh presidential election for his seventh consecutive term. This election starkly contrasted with the last election, as it was relatively calm without mass protests. The Western response to the election was overwhelmingly negative,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, which Moscow views as an attempt by Brussels and Washington D.C. to fully replace it. Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade complicates the situation. The economic challenges posed by such a... MORE

Executive Summary: General Robert Brieger, chairman of the European Union’s Military Committee, proposed a UN-mandated peace-support mission to be deployed in Ukraine following a Russia-Ukraine armistice. The European Union or some of its member states would participate alongside countries from the “Global South” acceptable to... MORE