Executive Summary: Moscow is facing ever greater problems filling the ranks of its invasion force. Increasing signing bonuses and pardons for those who serve are less effective than advertised. The Kremlin is turning to ever more repressive and deceptive measures, but these are not working... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Ministries of Defense of Belarus and Russia approved the Zapad-2025 Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE), scheduled for 2025, which will focus on both conventional and nuclear components. Preparations for the Zapad-2025 JSE are designed to create a cover for the concentration... MORE

Executive Summary: An armed Russian drone crash incident reveals in Latvia on September 7 the significant shortcomings within the Latvian comprehensive defense system. These shortcomings are related to the lack of certain military capabilities within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). They also expose critical... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia remains committed to its long-term strategic goals as it continues its war in Ukraine, including undermining US global influence, fracturing Trans-Atlantic unity, and aligning with authoritarian regimes, such as Iran and North Korea. Russia’s reliance on outdated stockpiles and unconventional resupply shows... MORE

Executive Summary:  President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have begun familiarizing the incoming US administration of Donald Trump with Moscow’s terms and conditions for a political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Kremlin has noted Trump’s eagerness for a “deal” and expects to... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s ascension to the office of State President led to an outburst in diplomatic activity that lasted until the coronavirus pandemic. Breaking with Hu Jintao’s later years, Xi made more trips than his Prime Minister and engaged in a greater number of... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state,... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission,... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil and gas facilities, essential to the European energy supply, are particularly vulnerable targets, necessitating strengthened... MORE