As a result of the confluence of two developments, one welcome and encouraging and the other dangerous and worrisome, the airline that had maintained a route between Simerfopol (the capital of Crimea) and Turkey is ending that service. Andrey Sokolov, the Russian deputy minister for... MORE

Russia has been threating those European states that have continued to deliver natural gas to Ukraine after Russia has cut its own supplies to the vulnerable Eastern European country. More recently, some progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine gas talks being mediated by the... MORE

Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess. Russia used to be able to score some easy points at this seasonal show by denouncing the United States’ unilateralism... MORE

Belarusian analysts continue to assess the change in the international order, driven by the crisis in Ukraine, while Belarus’s relations with the West continue to gradually improve. To some extent, these phenomena are inter-related, and Russia’s worsening image in the eyes of the West may... MORE

After meeting consistent Ukrainian military opposition in Luhansk and Donetsk, following a largely non-violent annexation of Crimea, Russian planners seemed to have reassessed Ukraine’s resolve to directly resist the Russian military. At the military college of the Russian Ministry of Defense, held on September 16,... MORE

The shape of any political settlement will depend on whether Russian troops and paramilitary personnel with their weaponry are evacuated from what is legally Ukraine’s territory, or remain deployed there. Point 9 of the September 20 memorandum is unfulfillable as formulated (and it is hard... MORE

On September 20 in Minsk, negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—which together constitute the Tripartite Contact Group—as well as the Russia-installed Donetsk and Luhansk leaders finalized an agreement on the main elements of an armistice in the ongoing... MORE

On September 14, 2014, Crimea held its first post-annexation local elections. Since after the takeover, all the political posts of the Crimean parliament were filled with self-appointed actors. For pro-Russia groups, these so-called democratic elections to the local legislatures of Crimea and Sevastopol as well... MORE

Utter confusion surrounds Ukraine’s just-adopted law on the “special procedure of local self-administration in individual districts in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.” Pursuant to the September 5 ceasefire protocol, President Petro Poroshenko initiated this law, his administration drafted it, and the parliament adopted it on... MORE

After annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, Russia is now rebuilding its Black Sea Fleet (BSF) to ensure its regional dominance, to exclude all rivals, and to lay the foundation for further external power projection, threatening other littorals like Romania and Bulgaria. In April 2014, Putin directed... MORE