The security apparatus remains the key pillar of political power in the contemporary Arab state system. Whatever the post-war outlook of Syria will look like, its fabric will not change overnight. In one way or another, the Syrian military and intelligence community will remain the... MORE

The main battle line of the Libyan civil war—between the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by the self-proclaimed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and forces loyal to the United Nations–recognized Government of National Accord (GNA)—has shifted east, from the outskirts of Tripoli to the Mediterranean city... MORE

Ambiguity can be a useful political tactic, securing for a state the advantage of flexibility while leaving its adversaries guessing; but sometimes it simply camouflages confusion. Russia seeks to present its policy in the Middle East as usefully ambiguous. But in fact, it is at... MORE

Moscow plans to increase its military basing presence in Syria, building on its main existing agreements with the Bashar al-Assad regime in relation to the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province and the naval logistical facility in Tartus. While these facilities will also be expanded, on... MORE

In the last few weeks, Russia has been too busy with the domestic explosion of COVID-19 cases to properly attend to foreign policy matters; but the lack of interest in Moscow to the session of the Chinese National People’s Congress, which opened in Beijing last... MORE

On May 13, Russian special forces launched a search operation across the Assa River, in Ingushetia’s Sunzhensky district, which borders Chechnya. The authorities warned local villagers not to visit the area. The security forces were combing the forest for a group of militants led by... MORE

A glance at the Turkish Armed Forces’ recent combat record demonstrates that Turkey’s defense policy now extends well beyond its borders. Drones loitering in the Syrian airspace, navy frigates along the Libyan coast, Turkish military advisors in Tripoli alongside Government of National Accord (GNA) formations,... MORE

"All Americans in Iraq will be hostages if a war broke out between the U.S. and Iran. Because we will stand with Iran, period,” said Abu Ala’a al-Walai, the prominent Iraqi Shia militia leader, in a TV interview last August (Alalam TV, August 28, 2019; YouTube,... MORE

Between February 27 and March 5, Turkey conducted Operation Spring Shield to halt the Syrian Arab Army’s blitz offensive in Idlib and to press Moscow into brokering a ceasefire. Due to the grave risks involved in operating in the Syrian airspace, Turkish military planners opted... MORE

The first quarter of 2020 saw a serious escalation of combat in Syria, albeit without much alteration in the political trends, and the arrival of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has exacerbated a fraught situation. Under the Astana process, which began in late 2016, Turkey, Russia,... MORE