(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian analysts have redefined Arctic dynamics within the framework of a global hybrid war, viewing the region as a contested space of economic, military, and cyber confrontation with the West. Moscow now conceptualizes Arctic competition through five “circles,” ranging from Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to what Moscow labels the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s militarization of the Arctic, Russia has significantly restructured its Arctic policies. Russia has expanded the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and enacted symbolic legislative and institutional changes to cement federal control... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is warming 2.7 times faster than the global average due to positive feedback loops resulting from Russia’s distinct geography, with alarming consequences for Arctic infrastructure and regional ecosystems. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have shifted from skepticism about climate change... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine are making and sending home video protests to their local governments about a wide variety of issues, boosting the profile of opposition causes. Video protests from soldiers are increasing because commanders are unwilling to spark more anger in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has launched this year’s “Icebreaker of Knowledge” program, sending children to the North Pole aboard a nuclear-powered icebreaker as part of Moscow’s broader Arctic strategy. The expedition blends education with geopolitical messaging about Russia’s leadership in Arctic affairs as other states, including... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow portrays itself as a constructive actor advocating for economic cooperation in the Arctic and Baltic seas while also conducting an increasing rate of hybrid attacks and engaging in provocative discourse. This double game of cooperation has long marked the Kremlin’s Arctic agenda,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea. Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is attempting to signal its leadership of Arctic affairs with the sixth meeting of the International Arctic Forum (IAF) on March 26–27.  As Russia continues its war against Ukraine, the planned IAF program reflects Moscow’s isolation from most international Arctic partnerships, while... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow views Arctic cooperation with the United States as a means of deepening the divide between Washington and Europe. The United States, conversely, views cooperation with the Russian Federation in the Arctic as a means of dividing Moscow and Beijing. The Kremlin seeks... MORE