Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: Veterans returning from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine pose challenges not only to Russian society but also to the political elite, where the Kremlin fears returning veterans could grow into a challenge to the powers that be. Putin has announced a... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan is pursuing nuclear power cooperation with both Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), aiming to become a nuclear energy hub in Central Asia. Tashkent is hedging against risks in working with Moscow due to Russia’s weakened economic position amid international... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin instituted restrictions on the civilian use of virtual private networks (VPN) and U.S.-built technology at the beginning of September, ostensibly fearing that the U.S. government is using the technology to sow internal discord in Russia. The Russian Duma approved legislation on... MORE

Executive Summary: Non-Russians in the Russian Federation are increasing their share of the country’s population despite decreasing in absolute numbers because the decline in the number of ethnic Russians is far greater. This proportional increase reflects higher fertility rates among non-Russians than among ethnic Russians... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 9, a high-level Russian delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, paid an unannounced visit to Damascus and held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani. The talks focused on energy, military basing, and reconstruction, with Damascus demanding cheaper fuel... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 7 Kremlin-backed religious-nationalist procession in Moscow only drew 40,000 people, supporting the argument that right-wing activists remain a marginal force and do not pose a threat to the regime. In contrast, grassroots networks built around “war correspondents”—Russians who post information about... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to unveil Russia’s revised Arctic strategy, which reflects the country’s evolving security, economic, and development priorities, as well as the inadequacy of the current 2020 policy. Russian officials have been using the buzzword “development” or “exploration” at... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has become increasingly dependent on trade with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with more than a third of Russia’s total trade turnover being generated by the PRC. The recent memorandum on the development... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is expanding its efforts to use Buddhists within the Russian Federation to expand its influence in Buddhist countries abroad, despite facing growing problems among its own Buddhist population due to its divided response to the war against Ukraine. While it can still... MORE