Executive Summary: On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has... MORE

Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE

Executive Summary: The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness to accept Kyiv’s most basic terms. More likely, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the exchanges... MORE

Executive Summary: Rostec, Russia’s state-owned military-industrial corporation, revised its financial data for 2023, initially presented in May, and handed over this new data to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 30. The update shows a decrease in total revenue, arms manufacturing revenue, civil products revenue,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Federation continues its efforts aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society and undermining Kyiv’s defense capabilities through the use of social media and bots to spread disinformation. Russian propagandists effectively combine kinetic and non-kinetic means to increase the effects on the target audience,... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has reacted angrily to Japan’s agreement with the United States to set up a joint military command to counter Russian, Chinese, and North Korean moves. Russian commentators see this action as threatening Tokyo’s commitment not to use force offensively. This reaction builds... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Russian officials in Abkhazia are lobbying for the adoption of laws that will allow Russian citizens to buy real estate in the breakaway republic, where, in the 1990s, with the help of the Russian army, separatists carried out the ethnic cleansing of the... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Russian population overwhelmingly supports the war against Ukraine in the face of an “external enemy.” The potential for protest, however, is growing due to how the war has increasingly disrupted Russians’ everyday lives. Regional protests have yet to... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow has declared two movements in the ethnic Ukrainian regions of the Russian Federation as “extremist,” one in the Kuban and another in the Far East. The move reflects growing Russian concern about Ukrainian activism within Russia and outside support for it. These... MORE