Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE

Executive Summary: Following Ukraine’s successful “Operation Spiderweb” strike on Russian airfields on June 1, the Kremlin dropped its pretense of seriously pursuing peace talks, ramping up retaliatory strikes in Kyiv, Odesa, and other cities. The Kremlin is counting on its summer offensive to achieve Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: Corruption in Russia worsens the longer the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine continues because the war creates expanded opportunities for bribery and the state seizure and misallocation of assets. The Kremlin has generally sought to downplay the growth of corruption to conceal how the... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye is moving ahead with its first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu in partnership with Russia to expand domestic energy production and meet economic growth. Financing delays and sanctions-related challenges are testing the resilience of the Türkiye-Russia nuclear partnership, as the two countries... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s concerns regarding threats emanating from the Islamic State Khorasan Province and diversions from north-south transit routes have been the driving factors behind Moscow’s rapprochement with the Taliban. Afghanistan and Russia are close to establishing official diplomatic relations, but the Kremlin will likely... MORE

Decolonization for Security: Ukraine’s Strategic Policy Toward Indigenous Peoples Colonized by Russia, by Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, Deputy Chair, Temporary Special Commission on the Development of State Policy Toward the Indigenous Peoples of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian Parliament,  is the second article in a series of analyses... MORE

Executive Summary: The newly released draft of Moscow’s new nationality policy strategy document devotes far more attention to ethnic Russians as the “state-forming” nation than the document it will replace and far less to developing non-Russian nations in the Russian Federation. This document will likely... MORE

Executive Summary: The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, held on June 18–21, was a showcase of artificial optimism for Russia’s economy, despite most of Russia’s economic sectors outside of the military-industrial complex being in decline. Russian President Vladimir Putin projected optimism about Russia’s economy and... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian analysts have redefined Arctic dynamics within the framework of a global hybrid war, viewing the region as a contested space of economic, military, and cyber confrontation with the West. Moscow now conceptualizes Arctic competition through five “circles,” ranging from Arctic... MORE