Executive Summary: Moscow portrays itself as a constructive actor advocating for economic cooperation in the Arctic and Baltic seas while also conducting an increasing rate of hybrid attacks and engaging in provocative discourse. This double game of cooperation has long marked the Kremlin’s Arctic agenda,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia faces significant economic strain due to declining oil and gas revenues, disrupted supply chains, and falling stock markets, which are exacerbated by global trade disruptions and internal demographic challenges that impact military recruitment. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent envoy Kirill Dmitriev to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is now actively debating what Moscow should do if and when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine ends, focusing first and foremost on how to reintegrate veterans lest they spark unrest and even chaos on their return. Moscow is also... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is accelerating societal militarization through aggressive conscription tactics and the rapid expansion of military training in civilian education, aiming to create a long-term, competent force while limiting civilian access to higher education. Russia is opening more Military Training Centers and reopening command... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin seeks to restore normal relations with the West as a bargaining chip for negotiations on Russia’s war against Ukraine, despite intensifying anti-European rhetoric in Russian media. Pro-Kremlin analysts, especially from military-linked outlets, increasingly accuse Europe of Nazism and suggest deliberate strategies... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Union’s 14th sanctions included restrictions on the transshipment of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) through EU territory to third-party countries. The sanctions related to contracts signed before June 24, 2024 came into effect on March 26. Russia’s LNG industry faces significant... MORE

Executive Summary: Central Asians have long called for Russia to divert water from Siberian rivers to help them address water shortages, which are a result of rising demand and global warming. These calls have been rebuffed because Russians have feared that it would harm their... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White House has agreed to “help” Russia mitigate certain Western sanctions—including U.S. ones—that affect Russian agricultural exports. Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea. Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic planning and operational doctrine. In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has... MORE