Executive Summary: Chinese plans to develop mines in Moscow oblast undercut the Kremlin’s longstanding efforts to keep such projects and the protests they provoke far away from the capital, lest they lead to political demonstrations near the Kremlin. This transformation of environmental issues into political... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is closing its uranium market to Russia, a move that could have ripple effects on other Russian industries further disrupting the struggling economy. Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is trying to impede any Western resolve in allowing long-distance Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia to avoid destabilizing energy infrastructure and disrupting the lives of everyday Russians. Moscow uses the fear of escalation and nuclear saber-rattling to inflame worries... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE

Executive Summary: The head of Russian state-owned military-industrial corporation Rostec released the company’s 2023 annual corporate report, providing insights into the state of the Russian military-industrial complex. There is no sign of an “arms manufacturing miracle” in Russia despite Russian officials’ attempts to argue that... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian politics are divided into two factions: the Lukashenka regime, with strong ties to Russia, located within Belarus, and the opposition, whose members are largely in exile. The Lukashenka regime continues to rely on Russia economically but has worked to increase trade cooperation... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s preconditions for halting its war in Ukraine are still those from the spring of 2022, never agreed to by Kyiv, plus acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains since then. The terms of the Russian-designed treaty on Ukraine’s neutrality and security, recently exposed,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has released a series of “leaks” implying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to freeze hostilities in his war against Ukraine. The release likely occurred now as an attempt to derail preparations for the coming Ukraine peace summit this summer... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE