Executive Summary The Russian Federation uses extensive propaganda, outright lies, and—most importantly—disinformation as part of the hybrid warfare it is waging against Ukraine and the West. Disinformation combines truth, what people want to be true, and cleverly disguised outright falsehoods. Moscow has been actively using... MORE

The Russian government, which has used ethnic minority challenges against Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine to punish regimes whose foreign and domestic policies are at odds with Moscow’s now seems prepared to do the same thing in Uzbekistan. It appears Russia is attempting to exploit... MORE

The role of Russia’s Armed Forces and its proxies in Ukraine has been subject to much speculation. Throughout the crisis, the Kremlin has pursued a course of “plausible deniability” in its use of hard power, or kept the threat of large-scale invasion lurking in the... MORE

On August 4, the Ukrainian media widely reported on the arrest of Vladimir Mukhtarov, the major-general of Ukraine’s Cossack community. According to a statement by the prosecutor’s office of Luhansk province, Mukhtarov is suspected of having organized several “terrorist groups” near the town of Severodonetsk.... MORE

On August 1, Chechen and Ingush police clashed on the administrative border between the two republics. A heated argument between the two groups turned violent and one of the Chechen police officers reportedly fired his gun, injuring his own colleague. According to the Ingush side,... MORE

Building a giant version of Transnistria in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (Donbas) is Russia’s current policy, but it was not its start-off option. It became a fall-back plan when Moscow’s even more ambitious “Novorossiya” project failed (at least temporarily) in the other six provinces... MORE

With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I... MORE

A high level of secrecy was the defining feature of the Chechen militants under the command of Doku Umarov. Even news of the split within the Chechen insurgency’s ranks was transmitted mainly by the neighboring jamaats, rather than by the Chechens. This situation has radically... MORE

Western diplomacy seems about to revert to pressuring Ukraine into a disadvantageous armistice and negotiations with Russia’s protégés in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” This could become the basis for creating a Transnistria-type Russian protectorate, frozen in place and time on Ukraine’s territory (see... MORE

Executive Summary The Russia-supported separatists operating in eastern Ukraine as well as some of their backers in Russia are increasingly espousing a radical ideology based on a meld of Christian Orthodoxy, expansionist Eurasianism, and irredentist state aggression. One important figure closely tied into this group... MORE