Executive Summary: Since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has been working to counter Russian influence in Africa and expand its own by doubling its embassies on the continent and increasing aid. Most African countries remain neutral because Ukraine is a major grain supplier.... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Arctic Express route was launched in July as part of the joint Russian-Chinese development of the “Ice Silk Road,” which aims to develop the shortest route from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic via the Arctic. China increasingly sees strategic benefit in... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku is currently turning away from the West toward Russia and Iran, angry at Western countries for their support of Armenia and criticism of human rights issues in Azerbaijan, and hopeful that Moscow and Tehran will help achieve its geo-economic and geopolitical goals.... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye could be a key player in the People's Republic of China's (PRC) strategy of coopting foreign journalists in order to create a more favorable image of its policies in Xinjiang. Türkiye’s participation in PRC state-backed tours for journalists, along with recent economic... MORE

Executive Summary: Key officials visited the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) in late August to explain the city’s political, economic, cultural, and security responsibilities. They signaled deeper integration with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) mainland while leveraging its unique international position. Hong Kong... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement anticipates crisis responses in the event of another Russian aggression, building the “Ukrainian future force” during the war and after, as well as future security requirements in the Black Sea. US-Ukraine joint crisis response would cover both a repeat... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement is the most comprehensive among recent bilateral agreements with Kyiv. Like the others, however, it is not legally binding but rather a statement of intentions or a memorandum of understanding. The agreement conveys uncertainty regarding Washington’s resolve to fully... MORE

Executive Summary: The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: In the spring, Russia reported the discovery of an enormous new oil field in Antarctica.  Moscow told Western governments it had no plans to develop the field, even as Western observers warned that exploitation of the new deposits could threaten the Antarctic treaty... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE