Executive Summary: Although Moscow and Ufa believe their repressions against protesters have been successful, the repressions will likely radicalize protest attitudes, ensuring that non-Russians will see Moscow as the problem. Expert observers recognize this is the case, sparking a new discussion about what the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Lukashenka strengthens ties with Russia through various events, emphasizing economic cooperation, joint ventures, and alignment on historical narratives to cement their alliance further. These symbolic gestures showcase a united front against perceived Western threats, reinforcing the ideological bond between Belarus and... MORE

Executive Summary: Support for Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin indicates readiness among Russians to oppose the war openly, reflecting discontent with both Putin and ongoing conflicts and motivating the Kremlin to regain support. The Kremlin has linked war benefits to everyday needs, portraying destruction as... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is looking to South Asia as a source of new immigrants to compensate for the demographic decline of the Russian population and declining numbers of migrant workers from Central Asia. Such a policy faces enormous obstacles given both the negative attitudes of... MORE

Executive Summary: Irakli Kobakhidze has been nominated for the position of Prime Minister of Georgia, succeeding Irakli Garibashvili. Influential Georgian Dream Party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili's involvement has been cited despite denials, hinting at continued party control over government appointments. The Georgian public and opposition have... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help Ukraine. Putin’s tactical aim is to torpedo Western aid to Ukraine until a potential Trump... MORE

Executive Summary: The new Polish government has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s security in the wake of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Kyiv. Warsaw is a major advocate for Ukraine’s NATO membership. It calculates that Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance will be crucial in... MORE

Executive Summary: New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification with the CCP... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow views Zelenskyy’s decree to devote more attention to ethnic Ukrainians inside Russia as a more serious attack on Russian statehood and identity than many in Ukraine and the West do. That perception will likely prompt Moscow to diminish the history of Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: The Hungarian National Assembly passed a controversial law establishing the “Sovereignty Protection Authority” (SZVH) to combat alleged foreign interference in the country’s political processes. The Sovereignty Protection Law itself bears similarities to Russian law in targeting alleged foreign agents, limiting opposition parties’ ability... MORE