Executive Summary: Western sanctions have severely hurt Kaliningrad’s economy, particularly for cross-border transit, tourism, and fishing. The Kremlin has allocated increased subsidies to the region raising questions regarding the sustainability of Kaliningrad’s growing reliance on Moscow for economic aid. The region’s economy remains highly vulnerable... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent “almost naked” party of Russian celebrities has led to a new wave of government repression and widespread public discontent. Moscow’s media campaign against the partiers aimed to strengthen support for the war in Ukraine and demonstrate “solidarity with the people” by... MORE

Since becoming ataman of the Cossacks in November 2023, Vitaly Kuznetsov has charted a new direction for the state-registered movement that replicates the Wagner Group model in some ways. In a December interview, Kuznetsov made clear that one of his main tasks is the unification... MORE

At the end of last year, it was becoming increasingly apparent that Russian industry was struggling with flagging production rates and a shortage of technical personnel (see EDM, September 21, October 31, December 4, 2023). The most recent update of Russia’s industrial statistics for the... MORE

Stalemate is presently used most often to describe the current state of Russia’s war against Ukraine these days. Fighting along the frontlines, however, is quite fluid and may be approaching a major turn. President Vladimir Putin remains defiantly confident that Russian forces are making steady... MORE

Moldova’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is setting the stage to hold a national referendum on the country’s EU membership this fall, on the same day as the planned presidential elections (Deschide.md, January 10). This follows President Maia Sandu’s recent announcement that she... MORE

On December 31, 2023, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka declared in his New Year’s address that the “Year of Peace and Creation” has come to an end in Belarus and that 2024 will usher in the “Year of Quality.” He emphasized the importance of the connection... MORE

Moscow continues to claim that it has more than fully compensated for its lost access to oil and natural gas markets in the West due to sanctions by expanding sales to China, India, and other countries in the East (Politicheskiy Kaleidoskop, January 1). A closer... MORE

In December 2023, independent journalists and human rights activists prepared a prognosis of what awaits Russia in the near future. According to participants in the “Network Freedoms” project, Russian citizens should expect total censorship on the Internet. The Russian authorities will begin to recognize popular... MORE

On  December 14, 2023, the European Union granted official candidate status to Georgia (Twitter.com/CharlesMichel,December 14, 2023; European Commission, accessed January 2). The decision will presumably have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Inspired by Brussels’ pronouncement, Georgia intends to overtake Ukraine... MORE