Executive Summary: Russia faces a severe economic crisis, with inflation rates significantly exceeding official figures. Efforts to combat inflation through high interest rates have slowed economic growth and investment, leading to risks of an economic downturn. The Kremlin is prioritizing war funding at the expense... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary Russia remains the dominant player in the Arctic icebreaker sector, but this advantage may face challenges in the coming decade due to the collaborative ICE Pact involving the United States, Canada, and Finland. For Russia, icebreakers are essential for accessing Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia announced the new Project 22220 Chukotka nuclear icebreaker in early November, which is part of a new generation of icebreakers crucial for transforming the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic into a globally competitive transportation artery. Moscow sees the Arctic as a... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency. The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the US decision to allow limited use of long-range missile systems... MORE

Executive Summary: As Western sanctions increasingly isolate Russia, it has become highly dependent on China for trade and economic support, particularly in energy exports sold at discounted prices. China has capitalized on Russia’s isolation by expanding its investments and economic influence within Russia, with Chinese... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the beginning of Russia’s war in 2022, Ukraine has been rapidly transitioning from importing arms to producing them domestically and is working toward becoming a significant player in the global arms market. Ukraine is expanding its production capacity for critical technologies such... MORE

Executive Summary: Cooperation between Iran and Russia has improved incrementally since 2022, especially in the military sphere. The two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement toward the end of this year.  Moscow and Tehran have faced challenges due to Western sanctions and... MORE

Executive Summary: Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: Economists predict a slowing of Russia’s civilian economy next year with a strong inflationary trend. This will elicit dissatisfaction, not only among ordinary people, but also among the industrial elites. To ease this pressure, Russian authorities have turned to economic blackmail in the... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Union is working with the countries along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (also known as the Middle Corridor) to support infrastructure development and provide technical assistance for improving standards, digitalization, and regional interoperability. Disruptions along the trans-Russia northern route due to Western... MORE