Executive Summary: As part of Belarus’s Independence Day festivities, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented an amnesty plan to release thousands of convicts and political prisoners. He also introduced a series of personnel changes that may provide an opening for future rapprochement with the West. Two main... MORE

Executive Summary: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan have agreed to develop a trilateral transit corridor that would connect India to Russia via the eastern branch of the International North-South Transport Corridor. Moscow and New Delhi have enjoyed stronger ties lately, and both governments would support such... MORE

Executive Summary: The failure for Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive was largely due to delays in the West’s funding and fears in some Western countries of escalation if they clearly define and declare their overarching goal as Ukraine’s ultimate victory and Russia’s total defeat. While Russia has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea region looks to become an international energy hub as the European Union seeks alternatives to its energy dependence on Russia through the export of natural gas from littoral Caspian Sea states. Moscow is concerned about the prospect of the Caspian... MORE

Executive Summary Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 emboldened Moscow to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fanning the flames of “pan-Russian” nationalism and providing the ideological justification. The cultural, military, and geopolitical significance of Crimea is underpinned by its... MORE

Executive Summary:  Kazakhstan is looking to bolster trade relations beyond Eurasian Russia to the European Union and the United States partly due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine and sanctions imposed against Russia, limiting economic opportunities. The rich natural resource deposits in Kazakhstan will likely attract... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has reconsidered its support for the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, throwing more weight behind the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Transitional Sovereignty Council. The move serves to align Moscow’s position more closely with that of Iran, seeks to dampen the SAF’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian defense industry has production capacities for purchasing, producing, and repairing weapons that exceed the available budget and thus needs more external funding from foreign investors. The strengthening of Ukraine’s domestic defense sector is critical for providing a steady supply of munitions... MORE

Executive Summary: A recent translation of a book by influential writer and retired PLA officer Liu Mingfu includes a previously censored chapter on a new approach to reunification with Taiwan, indicating that a wider range of approaches to the “Taiwan question” are in play than... MORE

Executive Summary:  In June, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss, among other issues, Türkiye’s prospective membership in the loose-economic grouping of BRICS, which Putin “fully supports.” The impetus for BRICS expansion has grown significantly amid Russia’s full-scale invasion... MORE