Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declarations regarding Poland once again demonstrate that the Kremlin is trying to create and strengthen contradictions between its geopolitical enemies. Moscow has a similar policy regarding other Western countries, and Kremlin analysts do not conceal the fact that Russia... MORE

Executive Summary:  South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova. The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding to maintain influence over Moldovan politics. Encouraging Gagauzia to demand upgrades in its autonomy is... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has been developing its space industry in the past couple of years to boost its international reputation and elevate the country as a regional hub for science and technology. Expansion of the Azerbaijani space industry has led to partnerships with Israel, Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary: Berlin and Astana have been working to increase oil exports from Kazakhstan since the end of 2022 after Western sanctions forced Germany to explore alternatives to Russian energy sources. Increasing Kazakh oil exports seems unlikely as shipments would pass through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is looking to Latin America to send Soviet-era and Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for modern American-made analogs. Many Latin American countries are hesitant to agree to this request because they do not want to break their treaties with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE