Executive Summary: The Ukrainian Air Force is seeing increased success in eliminating Russian aircraft and missiles, thereby opening up more opportunities for offensive air and ground operations. Ukrainian units are effectively using Western aircraft (e.g., F-16 and Mirage fighter jets) and various missile and bomb... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing is looking to increase its security presence in Asia and further afield, according to two recent high-level statements of intent—a white paper on “national security in the new era” and a new “model of security for Asia.” Beijing senses opportunities amid policy... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using memory politics through state media, museums, and official narratives to glorify Cossack military tradition, attempting to merge “service” and “ancestral” conceptions of Cossack history to justify modern expansionism and legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin is investing... MORE

Executive Summary: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) announced its departure from Mali on June 6. The PMC’s operations in Africa enabled Russia to establish a network of influence on the continent and secure access to natural resources. Late-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic Republic of Iran is cracking down on the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) in the aftermath of its war with Israel. The PJAK appears to be reaching out to potential allies in the West, and has likewise tried to build a... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 22, an Islamist terrorist entered the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus mid-service, opening fire on the crowd before detonating his suicide vest. The attack killed 25 and injured 63. While it is not yet known who is responsible for... MORE

Executive Summary: The Arakan Army (AA), an ethno-nationalist rebel group active in Myanmar, has managed to seize some 90 percent of Rakhine State, with several major cities under siege and the entirety of the border with Bangladesh under their control. The group is receiving increasing... MORE

Executive Summary: In the aftermath of the Indian air strikes on Pakistan on May 6, militant groups active in and around Pakistan took a variety of approaches to responding to the brief escalation within their respective propaganda apparatuses: Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) initially... MORE

Executive Summary: Serious crime has risen to its highest level since 2010 in Russia because of the influx of weapons from Moscow’s war against Ukraine, as well as the Kremlin’s increased focus on prosecuting corruption. The influx of weapons into Russia, brought into the country... MORE