Latest Articles about Military/Security

Russia’s Federal Subjects Quietly Cutting Subsidies for Military Recruits

Executive Summary: Some Russian federal subjects are reducing the bonuses awarded to new military recruits, though earlier in Moscow’s war against Ukraine, the regions competed among themselves to offer the highest subsidies.   These new cutbacks stem from growing financial constraints, also reflected in overall spending... MORE

Ukraine Braces for Another Hard Winter

Executive Summary: Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities. Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have... MORE

Mahmoud Hamza: Libyan Power Broker on the Rise

Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Russia Tests NATO’s Eastern Defenses

Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Naim Qassem: Hezbollah Secretary-General Rejects Disarmament

Executive Summary: On August 15, Hezbollah’s new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, rejected Lebanon’s U.S.-backed disarmament plan. Lebanon’s eventual reconstruction hinges on Hezbollah’s disarmament. The situation has deepened sectarian divides as Shia factions remain loyal but strained by losses sustained in the war with Israel. After Hezbollah... MORE

Manesa Tabuni: The Rival Government in the Papuan Independence Movement

Executive Summary: Menase Tabuni became chairman of United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) in 2023, replacing Benny Wenda’s “government-in-waiting” of the Papuan independence movement with a new constitution and headquarters in Vanuatu, sparking a bitter leadership split. Wenda, backed by the West Papua People’s... MORE

Russia’s War Transforms Ukraine into a World-Leading Military Producer

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Maritime Drones Becoming Flagship of the Ukrainian Navy

Executive Summary: The September 24 Ukrainian naval drone attack on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse marked the first time that Ukraine has used maritime drones to attack Russian oil industry facilities.   Ukraine’s development of advanced maritime drones like the Magura and SeaBaby have demonstrated... MORE