Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: On August 15, Hezbollah’s new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, rejected Lebanon’s U.S.-backed disarmament plan. Lebanon’s eventual reconstruction hinges on Hezbollah’s disarmament. The situation has deepened sectarian divides as Shia factions remain loyal but strained by losses sustained in the war with Israel. After Hezbollah... MORE

Executive Summary: Mullah Abdul Haq Wasiq, Taliban intelligence chief and former Guantanamo detainee, has become central to Afghanistan’s internal security and counter–Islamic State efforts. Once tied to al-Qaeda, Wasiq now engages in high-level talks with the CIA, including negotiations over detained Americans and coordination against... MORE

Executive Summary: Menase Tabuni became chairman of United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) in 2023, replacing Benny Wenda’s “government-in-waiting” of the Papuan independence movement with a new constitution and headquarters in Vanuatu, sparking a bitter leadership split. Wenda, backed by the West Papua People’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 24 Ukrainian naval drone attack on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse marked the first time that Ukraine has used maritime drones to attack Russian oil industry facilities.   Ukraine’s development of advanced maritime drones like the Magura and SeaBaby have demonstrated... MORE

Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting from overt nuclear brinkmanship to using Russia’s nuclear energy program as a “peaceful” tool of influence, especially through technology transfers to developing countries. Putin’s proposal to extend some terms of the U.S.–Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty... MORE

Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE