Executive Summary: On July 4, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) lost all off-site power supply due to nearby Russian drone strikes for the ninth time since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation and operator of Zaporizhzhia NPP since March 2024, has expressed... MORE

Executive Summary: Violent attacks on people and property in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine are threatening Moscow’s control there. The attackers, many of whom are Russian veterans with criminal pasts, are better armed and sometimes outnumber the local police. These veterans are often joined by... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Wagner Group is being withdrawn from Mali after a three-and-a-half-year deployment with a mixed record of battlefield successes that have come at enormous civilian cost. Wagner’s replacement with the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps may signal a change in Kremlin tactics. Regardless... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization. Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,”... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Cossack Society (VsKO) drafted an agreement in June that would formally establish a Cossack mobilization reserve. Cossack forces are already active in Russia’s Combat Army Reserve (BARS) system, with about 25,000 Cossacks in 18 battalions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: On March 3, the separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) conducted its fourth attack using a female suicide bomber. This suggests that the trend is likely to continue, with the women acting as powerful symbols for the BLA in its claim to represent the... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 3, 2024, senior Pakistani Taliban (TTP) commander Shahid Umar was killed in Afghanistan, the most significant killing of a TTP commander under Afghan Taliban rule to date. The assassination was unusual in that Shahid Umar was killed in the home of... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 18, the infamous Rohingya militant leader Ataullah Abu Ammar Al Jununi was captured by Bangladeshi counterterrorist forces. Ataullah was formerly the head of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militia that played a key role in the 2017 Rohingya crisis... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appointment of Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev as Commander in Chief of Russia’s Ground Forces highlights tensions in the Kremlin’s political-military leadership while sidelining critics of notorious Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. The concurrent sentencing of popular... MORE