Executive Summary: The number of Russians willing to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense to fight against Ukraine has recently declined, and several regions have been forced to reduce the payments to contract soldiers. Moscow recently published a new law permitting reservists... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s influence in the Caspian Sea littoral has declined since 2020 due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine diminishing Russian resources and international standing, regional conflicts and reordering, and the growing navies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Iran. Türkiye has been instrumental in helping Azerbaijan... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 22, Russia conducted its annual strategic nuclear forces exercise, coinciding with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) “Steadfast Noon” drills, which Moscow routinely denounces as provocative and threatening. The Russian exercise openly rehearsed nuclear launch authorization and retaliatory/counter-retaliatory strike procedures. Unofficially,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is expanding the role of the Cossacks, notably the Cossack Cadets Corps, as a significant structure in its national youth policy and as a tool for military indoctrination. Cossack groups are spreading into new domestic regions, such as Irkutsk oblast and Krasnoyarsk... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russian federal subjects are reducing the bonuses awarded to new military recruits, though earlier in Moscow’s war against Ukraine, the regions competed among themselves to offer the highest subsidies.   These new cutbacks stem from growing financial constraints, also reflected in overall spending... MORE

Executive Summary: Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities. Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have... MORE

Executive Summary: Like many militaries around the world, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) places strong emphasis on Clausewitz’s concept of the center of gravity—the single most important and decisive operational problem to the PLA in a given phase or time window. A recent PLA Daily... MORE

Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: On August 15, Hezbollah’s new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, rejected Lebanon’s U.S.-backed disarmament plan. Lebanon’s eventual reconstruction hinges on Hezbollah’s disarmament. The situation has deepened sectarian divides as Shia factions remain loyal but strained by losses sustained in the war with Israel. After Hezbollah... MORE