Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has urged his organization to disarm and pursue a negotiated settlement with Türkiye. His role and personal status remain central sticking points. The “terror-free initiative,” promoted by Devlet Bahçeli and President Erdoğan—both longtime PKK... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB) has taken advantage of weak interim governance to openly campaign for its legalization, as well as stage protests and recruit among students, professionals, and elements of... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE

Executive Summary: Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS), once an anti-Islamic State jihadist splinter group, has shifted its stance since late 2024 by recognizing Indonesia as an “Islamic state” and softening its rejection of democracy. This marks a significant ideological pivot toward actively cooperating with state institutions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) held the joint Maritime Interaction-2025 naval drills on August 1–5 in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, coordinating submarine operations for the first time. These drills demonstrate a new level of interoperability in... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 10, Poland shot down at least 19 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that had violated its airspace. Afterward, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) founding treaty. Belarus’s armed forces notified Poland and Lithuania about the incoming... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is stepping up international cooperation in defense manufacturing to maximize production, drive innovation, and protect critical industrial infrastructure from Russian strikes. Kyiv launched the “Test in Ukraine” platform to allow international defense companies to learn from Ukrainian innovation and test their new... MORE