Russia has recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) as “independent states,” eight years after seizing these territories in eastern Donbas from Ukraine. The scenario closely resembles Russia’s official seizure of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008 under the guise of... MORE

The protracted escalation of the crisis encompassing Europe, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Arctic but centered on Ukraine and driven entirely by Russia’s threats, has reached its inescapable culmination. President Vladimir Putin sought to sustain the military pressure on Kyiv and the West for... MORE

Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, conferred with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents in Kyiv and Moscow on February 14 and 15, respectively, turning these maiden visits into a shuttle-diplomacy effort. Far from even-handed, however, Scholz effectively sided with Russia against Ukraine (see EDM, February 15).... MORE

On February 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin met separately with his defense and foreign ministers, Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Lavrov, respectively. The Kremlin press service provided video footage of the opening remarks from both meetings, with the ministers sitting at a long table, 10 meters... MORE

The ongoing Russian military buildup along Ukraine’s borders has raised numerous concerns about whether the situation could escalate into all-out war (see November 8, 2021 and January 26, 2022) and triggered a wide-scale international response (see EDM, January 18). Notably, the crisis has more energetically... MORE

The showdown over Ukraine continues to keep experts guessing. On the one hand, warnings that the invasion could start at any time emanate from Washington. On the other hand, there are multiplying suggestions that such a development remains a low probability; this accumulating evidence comes... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The Belarus-Russia Union State Military Doctrine (Voyennaya Doktrina Soyuznogo Gosudarstva), signed on November 4, 2021, and released prior to the two countries’ joint military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, is notably interlinked with those maneuvers, running from... MORE

In mid-February, as Russians and Afghans mark the 33rd anniversary of the final withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, both countries are beefing up their forces along the Afghan-Tajikistani border. The trigger has been a renewed deterioration of the security situation in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous... MORE

On February 3, reports appeared in the international media alleging that Russia was planning to fabricate a pretext for a renewed invasion of Ukraine. According to United States officials cited by various news outlets, Russia might try to use a fake video showing an attack... MORE

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 14 and went on to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the following day. Preceding Scholz was French President Emmanuel Macron, who met with Putin and Zelenskyy (in... MORE