Executive Summary: Tensions between Russia and the West in the Arctic have risen dramatically, as Moscow condemns both Washington’s claims on the Arctic and increased US military activity. The Kremlin is considering denouncing the 1990 Baker-Shevardnadze agreement and insisting on its own right to make... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin is preparing to mobilize the Russian economy and population not only for the “long war” against Ukraine but also for a potential large-scale conflict with the West.  Beyond providing Kyiv with the necessary arms and economic support, a more concerted effort... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, underground militants in the North Caucasus have avoided going on the offensive, but recent events in the region suggest these groups have changed their minds. Militants in the North Caucasus are becoming more active—a development that Moscow blames on Ukraine... MORE

Executive Summary: Relations between Tbilisi and Kyiv have reached an all-time low as the two governments remain at odds over Russia’s war against Ukraine and the release of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a Ukrainian citizen, from prison. Georgia’s ruling party has claimed that the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist attack outside of Moscow was an abject failure of the Russian intelligence services, leading officials to push conspiracy theories claiming that Ukraine and the West were involved. Moscow’s exploitation of Tajik immigrants, who perform the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently declared that Russia has been “at war” ever since the West began supporting Ukraine with arms in deviating from the “special military operation” designation and hinting at a future mobilization. The Kremlin and the Russian people are... MORE

Executive Summary: Leaked files from iS00N reveal deep insights into the PRC’s intelligence operations, highlighting an intensified global security offensive as well as issues within the intelligence community. iS00N’s growth is tied to Xi Jinping’s aggressive policies and demonstrates the importance of private contractors in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s claim of responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall outside of Moscow, has led the Kremlin to stoke Islamophobic sentiments throughout Russia. Representatives of Russia’s Muslim minority warn fellow Muslims that the attack may lead to... MORE

Executive Summary: Ideology-driven paramilitary groups in Russia have grown significantly in size and influence since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, with the Russian Imperial Movement and “Rusich” representing perhaps the most active entities in this regard. Both groups are built on far-right, ultranationalist,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Navy’s reserve of admirals and ships is steadily decreasing as senior military commanders are losing their positions following numerous setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet at the hands of Ukraine’s drone and missile offensive. These failures and the destruction of one-third... MORE