Executive Summary: On September 12, a Russian Kh-22 cruise missile hit the unarmed civilian bulk carrier Aya bringing grain to Egypt, another example of a Russian attack where civilian vessels suffered collateral damage. The consequences of Russian missiles damaging civilian vessels, especially vessels exporting grain... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has again threatened Western countries with nuclear retaliation, claiming that Ukraine’s use of Western weapons means direct participation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries in his war against Ukraine. Western states should respond to this the same way they... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, has called for maximizing military assistance to Ukraine to change Russia’s calculus and bring Moscow to the negotiating table. This scenario spells, however, a territorial compromise at Ukraine’s expense rather than victory in war. Stoltenberg... MORE

Executive Summary: As veterans from Moscow’s war in Ukraine return to Russia and are lauded as the “new elite,” crime rates are drastically increasing, creating a surge in violence across Russian society. The Kremlin’s loss of the monopoly on violence, combined with reduced numbers of... MORE

Executive Summary: NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, recently offered his first retrospective assessment of the Alliance’s Ukraine policy. Retrospective assessments recognize that the United States and its major allies failed to deter Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While member states may have... MORE

Executive Summary: In late May, Mossad attributed two attacks against the Israeli embassy in Stockholm to Iranian-backed criminal networks active in the country. The individuals at the core of these networks are Rawa “The Kurdish Fox” Majid and Ismael “The Strawberry” Abdo. The decision by... MORE

Executive Summary: Nathan Bawm is a former artist and activist who transformed an organization named the Kuki-Chin National Development Organization into the present-day Kuki-Chin National Front and the Kuki-Chin National Army (KNA), an ethnic militant group that stands in opposition to a key peace accord... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 27, Pakistani security forces conducted a raid that appears to have killed Abbas Betani, a commander in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). While Betani was a prominent middle-level commander at the time of his death, members of his tashkeel (fighting unit) from... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has an extensive taxonomy of diplomatic relations, with at least 42 unique combinations of adjectives for different partnerships. The PRC has never delineated the ranking of these partnerships explicitly, though there is enough available information to determine... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war in Ukraine continues to cause tremendous casualties, rapidly depleting Russia’s supply of manpower.  Despite stable... MORE