Latest Articles about Military/Security
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Russian Arms Exports Collapse by 92 Percent as Military-Industrial Complex Fails
Executive Summary: Russia’s arms exports dropped by 92 percent from 2021 to 2024 due to redirected resources for Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, and funding issues. The number of countries purchasing Russian arms has dropped dramatically. Major customers such as India have shown caution or shifted to... MORE
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Putin’s Insurmountable Preconditions for Talks With Trump On Ukraine
Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE
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Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion
Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE
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Russia Balances War Escalation and Negotiations Rhetoric Amid Growing Discontent
Executive Summary: Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the... MORE
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Open Source and Our Crises of National Understanding
The challenges that face the United States and our allies require greater understanding on the parts of both government and society. Democratic governance means shared responsibilities. Citizens are not subjects. Open source is the only way to share information and develop a common understanding between... MORE
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Instead of Joint Sword-2024C, PLA Intensifies Winter Naval Training
Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval training drills near Taiwan and surrounding the First Island Chain on December 9–11 did not constitute a full-scale joint exercise but sent a signal to the incoming US administration. Beijing’s power projection demonstration, involving 60 vessels, signals to... MORE
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Keeping Ukraine Out of NATO Will Not Advance Peace With Russia
Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO in exchange for “peace” with Russia. Some NATO states are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide... MORE
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Russia and Ukraine May Agree to Ceasefire in 2025, but Peace Not Guaranteed
Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE
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Brief: JNIM Attacks in Benin Represented Group’s Growing Operational Strength in Periphery
Executive Summary: In late July, the Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) claimed responsibility for an attack in Benin outside of its traditional areas of operation. JNIM propaganda from this and another operation in the weeks that followed showed the capture of weapons... MORE
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Brief: Wagner Massacre in Mali and Ukraine’s Kursk Operation Appears to Have Led to PMC’s Partial Withdrawal
Executive Summary: The loss of a large number of Wagner/Africa Corps fighters in northern Mali on July 28 and the Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk oblast that occurred a week later appears to have given the paramilitary group an excuse to return to Russia. The... MORE