(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran. The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening... MORE

Executive Summary: Twenty-three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)member states have undertaken bilateral security commitments to Ukraine. The ten-year agreements operate under the umbrella of a Ukraine Compact, outside NATO’s framework, and postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership in deference to Russia. The assistance offers are potentially massive... MORE

Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE

Executive Summary: The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness to accept Kyiv’s most basic terms. More likely, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the exchanges... MORE

Executive Summary: Rostec, Russia’s state-owned military-industrial corporation, revised its financial data for 2023, initially presented in May, and handed over this new data to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 30. The update shows a decrease in total revenue, arms manufacturing revenue, civil products revenue,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Federation continues its efforts aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society and undermining Kyiv’s defense capabilities through the use of social media and bots to spread disinformation. Russian propagandists effectively combine kinetic and non-kinetic means to increase the effects on the target audience,... MORE

Executive Summary: On March 7, India's Ministry of Home Affairs designated 41-year-old Kashmiri militant Mohammad Qasim Gujjar as a terrorist. Gujjar has been involved in multiple high-profile attacks, financed and supplied arms to terrorists, and is a major recruiter for the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. Gujjar has... MORE

Executive Summary: The current emir of Islamic State Bengal (ISB)/“Neo-JMB” (Neo-Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh) is Mohammad Kamrul Hasan. An able recruiter and mastermind behind numerous bombings in Dhaka, Kamrul is in Turkish custody awaiting transfer back to Bangladesh. Mohammad Kamrul Hasan (also known as “Mahadi Hasan... MORE

Executive Summary: Peng Daxun leads the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), one of three major ethnic militias in Myanmar. The MNDAA, alongside the Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Front, launched a major offensive on October 27, 2023, against the forces of Myanmar’s junta,... MORE